922
FXUS66 KLOX 081825
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
08/103 AM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES BENEATH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH 80S AND 90S BEING COMMON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE REGION
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
08/720 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL AS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY WITH CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE INVERSION AOB 700 FEET. AS FOR WINDS, MANY REPORTS OF NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTING 25-40 MPH, AND EVEN SOME LOCAL GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
GRADIENTS WILL EXHIBIT A WEAK DIURNAL TREND TODAY (OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON). SO, CURRENT N-NE WINDS WILL
PEAK AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO, AT THIS TIME, NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS TODAY. CURRENT STRATUS/FOG ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY
SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING AND A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER, PER TEMP STUDY, TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER PRESENCE WILL LIMIT COASTAL WARMING SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST SUITE, ATTENTION WILL BE ON OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TEMPERATURES AND WIND ARE THE MAIN CHARACTERS OF THE WEATHER STORY
FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY, AND
PEAK IN STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD STARTING TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MOSTLY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY,
BUT THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY, WHILE THE
EAST-WEST GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO MORE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. N-NE WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING ACROSS THE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
CORRIDOR, WHILE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO
45 MPH, ARE PREVALENT OVER THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS ON THE
CENTRAL COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ AND I-5 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY, THOUGH LIKELY UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE ESPECIALLY AS THE
GRADIENTS WILL BE 2.5 TO 3.5 MB WEAKER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING. AS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER THE
USUAL SANTA ANA WIND AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES,
AS WELL AS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ISN'T ESPECIALLY STRONG, AND THE LAX-DAG GRADIENTS LOOK TO REACH
AROUND -4 TO -5 MB, SO THIS EVENT WILL BE ON THE WEAK TO BARELY
MODERATE SIDE OF THINGS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAYBE 1 OR 2
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT MOST, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING (WITH
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING) PAIRED WITH OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS,
WITH THE COASTS SPANNING THE 70S, AND THE INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH MOST FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY AREAS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON IF ADVISORIES
ARE NEEDED.
LAST TO BE TALKED ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM, ARE THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS EXPANSIVE AS THE
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IF THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE SLOW TO KICK IN TONIGHT,
AND/OR ARE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED, CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK BACK
IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT, AND DENSE FOG WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY. THE NBM SUGGEST THIS OUTCOME, AND GIVEN HOW THE
GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED,
ALLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE NBM FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
OFFSHORE FLOW AND HEAT SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AWAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
08/354 AM.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
TUESDAY, BUT STARTING WEDNESDAY THINGS START TO DIFFER. WHAT THEY
DO AGREE ON, HOWEVER, IS THAT RAIN IS COMING TO SOCAL SOMETIME
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND WITH A
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND
FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WET AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS NOW SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO SOCAL FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH THE
DETAILS OF PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, THE TIMING, AND AMOUNTS STILL
DIFFER. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE NBM STARTS TO BRING RAIN IN
STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE EC AND GFS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINLY START THE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EC DETERMINISTIC SUGGESTS THAT
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING, AND
ANOTHER BLIP OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HINT AT RAIN BEING
MORE SPREAD OUT AND CARRYING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
AMOUNTS, THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION AS WELL, AS THE
GFS BRINGS THE LOW MORE OVER THE OCEAN, AND THE EC MOVING MORE
OVER LAND. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO REMAIN TO HAVE WIDESPREAD OUTCOMES
FROM EACH MEMBER TO ANOTHER. SO, CURRENT NBM POPS LOOK GOOD
(THOUGH MAYBE 12 HOURS TOO EARLY), WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE VERY MUCH IN
QUESTIONS, RANGING FROM MINOR TO SIGNIFICANT. OVER THE COMING
DAYS, THE MODELS SHOULD COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AND DETAILS CAN
BE GREATLY FINED-TUNED. ESSENTIALLY, BE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
AVIATION
08/1823Z.
AT 1759Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF. 10% CHANCE
FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KBUR AND KVNY FROM 07Z-17Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX. THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS AT KSBP/KSMX FROM 02Z-18Z,
AND KPRB FROM 12Z-17Z. HIGHEST CHANCES AT KSMX.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, AND
KLGB. 15% CHANCE FOR NO CLEARING AT KOXR, KCMA, KSBA. THERE IS A
20% CHANCE FOR COASTAL SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ONCE
CIGS CLEAR. OTHERWISE, CLEARING AND ARRIVAL TIMES MAY BE OFF +/-
4 HOURS (HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY FOR ARRIVAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 20-40% CHANCE VSBYS OF 1/4SM AND CIGS VV001, HIGHEST
CHANCE KSBA, KOXR, KCMA.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
AFTER 00Z FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10% CHANCE FOR NO RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS. 20% CHANCE FOR VSBYS LESS THAN 1/2SM AND CIGS LESS THAN
VV002. BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. TIMING OF ARRIVAL MAY BE
AS EARLY AS 00Z OR AS LATE AS 07Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10% CHANCE FOR VV001-VV002 CIGS AND
VSBYS LESS THAN 1/2SM FROM 07Z-17Z.
MARINE
08/746 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SEAS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST
SUBSIDING THROUGH TODAY. 10-15 KNOT E TO NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM VENTURA TO
POINT DUME. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING RAIN AND AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND LARGE STEEP AND CHOPPY
SEAS TO THE REGION, INCLUDING NEARSHORE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
IMPACTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LUND/THOMPSON
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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