494
FXUS66 KLOX 091740
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
09/923 AM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS MOST COASTAL
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
09/938 AM.
***UPDATE***
BIG CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM COAST TO VALLEYS AS THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS MATERIALIZED BUT WITHOUT ANY UPPER SUPPORT. SO
FOR NOW COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION ARE STILL DEALING
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE JUST A
FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE
80S. MAY STILL GET A LITTLE SANTA ANA INFLUENCE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES BUT THE BIGGEST
WARMING TREND TODAY WILL BE INLAND. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A QUICK
UPDATE FOR BEACHES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TEMPS, OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING ON TRACK TODAY AND WITH LIKELY 1-3 DEGREE BUMP IN
TEMPS MONDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SW CA THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY, MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE STRETCHING ALL ACROSS THE
COASTS OF THE FOUR COUNTIES, WITH SOME SOME CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO
THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY, A SMALL PATCH IN THE EASTERN SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY (RIGHT OVER BURBANK AIRPORT), AND INTO THE VENTURA COUNTY
INLAND COAST (AND UP TO THE TOP OF THE CONEJO GRADE). WHILE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 9 AM FOR THE MALIBU COAST AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COAST AND INLAND COAST, THE REST OF THE
COASTAL AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS. AS FOR TONIGHT, MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COASTS IF THE OFFSHORE FLOW
REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH, AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING ANYWHERE THESE CLOUDS MAY FORM. OTHERWISE,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING,
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO COASTAL
AREAS. PLEASE SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE A LARGER GAP FOR THE VEHICLE IN
FRONT IF DENSE FOG IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION IS STILL EXPECTED
THESE NEXT TWO DAYS THANKS TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE 80S TO 90S BY MONDAY, WITH A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AT
THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME LOCATIONS
WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RECORD
BREAKING READINGS. ONE CAVEAT, HOWEVER, IS IF THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS END UP BEING WEAKER THAN THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LA BASIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS.
AS FOR WINDS, THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE THIS
MORNING (AROUND -2 MB FOR BOTH OFFSHORE LAX GRADIENTS), WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND -4.0 AND -2.6 MB
(LAX-DAG AND LAX-BFL, RESPECTIVELY) MONDAY MORNING. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LACK OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION, WILL RESULT IN A WEAK (MAYBE BARELY MODERATE) SANTA ANA
EVENT, WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICAL SANTA ANA CORRIDOR OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AS WELL THE SANTA LUCIAS THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH A ISOLATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
REACHING AROUND 45 MPH.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
09/334 AM.
OVERALL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
SAME SYNOPTIC PAGE WITH A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE STILL ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
(TIMING, AMOUNTS, ETC.), SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AT ALL
FOR THE EXTENDED.
ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING,
AHEAD OF THE STORM.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STORM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE ECWMF AND ITS ENSEMBLES (AS WELL AS THE ECWMF-AIFS)
ARE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERATE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAN THE GFS AND ITS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MODERATE SIDE. CURRENT BEST FORECAST
ESTIMATE IS FOR A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAIN EVENT ACROSS COASTS AND
VALLEYS, AND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, THERE IS QUITE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS MODEL
OUTCOMES, SO THERE REMAINS A 30% CHANCE OF A LESSER EVENT, OR
A HEAVIER EVENT INCLUDING SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS FOR RAIN
RATES AND SPECIFIC BURN SCAR CONCERNS, IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE
TILT OF THE TROUGH, DIRECTION OF FLOW, AND THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH REASONABLE
RAIN RATES. ADDITIONALLY, BASED ON THICKNESSES, SNOW LEVEL LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND THE RESORTS COULD SEE
SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE WITH RAIN
TOTALS, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW TO
MODERATE SIDE. BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, THE WINDOW FOR THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OPENS UP, SO HOPING BY TUESDAY, THERE
WILL BE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT AND DETAILS CAN BE FINE TUNED.
AVIATION
09/1650Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT AND VALLEY SITE,
BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SITES.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP
AND KSMX TONIGHT. FOR COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION,
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 06Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
09/850 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR
THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ON THURSDAY ACROSS PZZ670/673.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
THURSDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH EVEN A 20%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY EVENING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON/LUND
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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