635
FXUS66 KLOX 092050
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1250 PM PST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
09/1200 PM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS MOST COASTAL
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
09/1221 PM.
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT WASN'T STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SANTA ANA
EVENT TO PUSH WIND AND HOT TEMPS TO THE COAST TODAY AND IT MAY
STRUGGLE AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE VALLEYS ARE WARMING UP QUITE A
BIT WITH MANY AREAS CLOSE TO 90 AS OF NOON. MEANWHILE, MOST AREAS
BELOW 500 FEET ELEVATION ARE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS HAVEN'T
BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT EITHER WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF SITES OVER 25 MPH. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY BUT STILL WITH VERY
MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT SO FOR THE MOST PART A VERY SIMILAR DAY AS
TODAY EXCEPT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS HOLDING ITS OWN AND SOME BEACHES ARE
STILL HAVING PERIODS OF DENSE FOG THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AGAIN TONIGHT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
NOT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE COAST (AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS) AND CREATING IMPACTS FOR DRIVERS, AVIATION, AND
BOATERS.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE ARRIVAL. GRADIENTS WILL
QUICKLY TURN ONSHORE AND MOST AREAS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
09/1248 PM.
STARTING TO GET SOME IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS REGARDING
THE STORM LATER IN THE WEEK. TIMING-WISE MODELS ARE ZONING IN ON
THURSDAY BEING THE PRIMARY PERIOD FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME EARLY SHOWERS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.
MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNTS AS
WELL WITH A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A
HEAVY, BUT RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLL IN THE AMOUNTS
WITH UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING TWICE TO 3 TIMES THE AMOUNTS AT SEA
LEVEL. OVERALL, STICKING WITH THE 1-2/2-4 INCH RANGE (COAST AND
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS), WITH MUCH OF THAT FALLING IN 5-10 HOUR PERIOD,
AND HOURLY AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH, AND AS MUCH
AS 0.75 IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8000' FOR MOST OF THE
STORM, THEN DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET AS THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON THE
GRAPEVINE, BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (2-4") ARE POSSIBLE DOWN
TO AROUND 6000'.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
09/1650Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT AND VALLEY SITE,
BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SITES.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP
AND KSMX TONIGHT. FOR COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION,
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 06Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
09/1216 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PZZ676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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