339
FXUS66 KLOX 100401
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
801 PM PST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
09/521 PM.
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM AND DRY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND WILL START
TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN MAY START AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
09/758 PM.
***UPDATE***
A VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION IS CREATING AREAS OF FOG ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST THIS EVENING, WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IF THE DENSE FOG
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS, INCLUDING THE HREF, INDICATE THAT
THE SHALLOW INVERSION COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS TODAY WITH MANY
READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT, TO -3.5 MB BETWEEN LAX TO
DAGGETT, EXPECT WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL. WHILE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORS
RISING TEMPERATURES, THE NAM12 INDICATED THE 950 MB TEMPS
REMAINING SIMILAR IN SOME AREAS, OR DECREASING SLIGHTLY. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE MARINE INVERSION HOLDS UP, TEMPERATURES COULD WARM AT
THE COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT WASN'T STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SANTA ANA
EVENT TO PUSH WIND AND HOT TEMPS TO THE COAST TODAY. WINDS
HAVEN'T BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT EITHER WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF SITES OVER 25 MPH. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY BUT STILL WITH VERY MINIMAL
UPPER SUPPORT SO FOR THE MOST PART A VERY SIMILAR DAY AS TODAY
EXCEPT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE ARRIVAL. GRADIENTS WILL
QUICKLY TURN ONSHORE AND MOST AREAS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
09/1248 PM.
STARTING TO GET SOME IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS REGARDING
THE STORM LATER IN THE WEEK. TIMING-WISE MODELS ARE ZONING IN ON
THURSDAY BEING THE PRIMARY PERIOD FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME EARLY SHOWERS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.
MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNTS AS
WELL WITH A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A
HEAVY, BUT RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLL IN THE AMOUNTS
WITH UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING TWICE TO 3 TIMES THE AMOUNTS AT SEA
LEVEL. OVERALL, STICKING WITH THE 1-2/2-4 INCH RANGE (COAST AND
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS), WITH MUCH OF THAT FALLING IN 5-10 HOUR PERIOD,
AND HOURLY AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH, AND AS MUCH
AS 0.75 IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8000' FOR MOST OF THE
STORM, THEN DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET AS THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON THE
GRAPEVINE, BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (2-4") ARE POSSIBLE DOWN
TO AROUND 6000'.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
10/0109Z.
AT 2331Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT AND VALLEY
SITE, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL SITES EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST SITES WHERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR-VLIFR CONDS.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CIGS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF LIFR-VLIFR CONDS FOR ALL COASTAL TAFS. THE TIMING OF LOW
CLOUDS ARRIVAL AND DISSIPATION COULD DIFFER +/- 3 HRS FROM TAF
TIMES.
KLAX...OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY FROM 06Z TO
15Z, BUT THE TIMING COULD DIFFER BY +/- 3 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF.
MARINE
09/732 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PZZ676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...CMC
MARINE...RAT/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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