092
FXUS66 KLOX 100554
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
954 PM PST SUN NOV 9 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
09/521 PM.
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM AND DRY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND WILL START
TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN MAY START AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
09/758 PM.
***UPDATE***
A VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION IS CREATING AREAS OF FOG ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST THIS EVENING, WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IF THE DENSE FOG
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS, INCLUDING THE HREF, INDICATE THAT
THE SHALLOW INVERSION COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS TODAY WITH MANY
READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT, TO -3.5 MB BETWEEN LAX TO
DAGGETT, EXPECT WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL. WHILE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORS
RISING TEMPERATURES, THE NAM12 INDICATED THE 950 MB TEMPS
REMAINING SIMILAR IN SOME AREAS, OR DECREASING SLIGHTLY. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE MARINE INVERSION HOLDS UP, TEMPERATURES COULD WARM AT
THE COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT WASN'T STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SANTA ANA
EVENT TO PUSH WIND AND HOT TEMPS TO THE COAST TODAY. WINDS
HAVEN'T BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT EITHER WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF SITES OVER 25 MPH. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY BUT STILL WITH VERY MINIMAL
UPPER SUPPORT SO FOR THE MOST PART A VERY SIMILAR DAY AS TODAY
EXCEPT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE ARRIVAL. GRADIENTS WILL
QUICKLY TURN ONSHORE AND MOST AREAS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
09/1248 PM.
STARTING TO GET SOME IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS REGARDING
THE STORM LATER IN THE WEEK. TIMING-WISE MODELS ARE ZONING IN ON
THURSDAY BEING THE PRIMARY PERIOD FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME EARLY SHOWERS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.
MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNTS AS
WELL WITH A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A
HEAVY, BUT RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLL IN THE AMOUNTS
WITH UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING TWICE TO 3 TIMES THE AMOUNTS AT SEA
LEVEL. OVERALL, STICKING WITH THE 1-2/2-4 INCH RANGE (COAST AND
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS), WITH MUCH OF THAT FALLING IN 5-10 HOUR PERIOD,
AND HOURLY AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH, AND AS MUCH
AS 0.75 IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8000' FOR MOST OF THE
STORM, THEN DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET AS THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON THE
GRAPEVINE, BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (2-4") ARE POSSIBLE DOWN
TO AROUND 6000'.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
10/0553Z.
AT 0537Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, AND KWJF. THERE IS
A 10% CHANCE FOR VLIFR-LIFR CONDS AT EACH SIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING COASTAL TAFS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
PULLING OUT OF SOME COASTAL AREAS, BUT EXPECTING THEM TO PUSH BACK
IN SOON. ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SITES WITHOUT CIGS MAY BE ANY TIME THIS
MORNING. LESS THAN 1/2SM VSBYS AND CIGS LESS THAN VV002 ARE
POSSIBLE (50% CHANCE) AT ALL COASTAL SITES ANY TIME WHEN CIGS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. TIMING OF BURN OFF MAY BE OFF +/- 3
HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 12/00Z.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 50% CHANCE FOR 1/2SM OR LOWER VSBYS
WITH VV002 OR LOWER CIGS ANY TIME CIGS ARE PRESENT THROUGH 17Z.
CLEARING TIME MAY BE ANY TIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. 20% CHANCE FOR
OVC002-OVC006 CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 12/07Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST
WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10% CHANCE FOR VV001-VV002 CIGS
AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1/2SM FROM 10Z-17Z.
MARINE
09/732 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PZZ676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...RAT/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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