049
FXUS66 KLOX 102229
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
10/114 PM.
A COOLING TREND WILL START TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM
SYSTEM. RAIN MAY START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
10/229 PM.
ANOTHER DAY OF 80S AND 90S ACROSS ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT MOSTLY 60S AT THE COAST WITH A
LIGHT SEA BREEZE ON AND OFF VERY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME IN ALL AREAS TUE AND WED
LEADING TO 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS.
A MODERATE TO STRONG STORM WITH PW'S AROUND 1.5" IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT 90% OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON THURSDAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AROUND 6-8 HOURS OF PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT, 1-3 HOURS OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY WITH UP TO
0.75" PER HOUR AND A 20% CHANCE OF AS MUCH AS AN INCH PER HOUR.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE IN THE USUAL FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIA'S, THE SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS
(PARTICULARY THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE) INTO THE WESTERN VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, AND THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THOSE AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT IT'S LIKELY THAT A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS,
INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT BURN SCARS. PROJECTED RAIN AMOUNTS
REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH MOST COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS FALLING INTO
THE 1-2" RANGE AND FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAINS IN THE
2-4" RANGE. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE 5" TOTALS
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW BELOW 8000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE
VERY TAIL END OF IT WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES BETWEEN
6000-8000 FEET.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
10/228 PM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW LONG SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE MAIN COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES PLACE THE TROUGH RIGHT THROUGH LA COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS BEFORE THE TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING RAIN RATES WELL BELOW A HALF INCH PER
HOUR AFTER 4AM FRIDAY.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A WEAK STORM NEXT MONDAY BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
10/1654Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KPRB,
KBUR, KVNY, KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR COASTAL SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECASTS OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
10/140 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A 20%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ON SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
THURSDAY, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE MORNING AND A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A 20-30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. ON SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR
LESS ARE LIKELY.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL NORTHWARD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
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