331
FXUS66 KLOX 111723
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/913 AM.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER WILL BRING DENSE FOG AT TIMES TO THE COAST, POSSIBLY
REACHING THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
11/922 AM.
***UPDATE***
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY
FOR VALLEYS AND INLAND AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG GETTING INTO SOME OF THE VALLEYS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO THROW SOME CURVE BALLS AT US FOR THIS NEXT
STORM, PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING AS MANY OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE
NOW ARE SLOWING IT WAY DOWN, AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING WELL INTO
SATURDAY. AI MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLOWER BUT NOW THE
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AS WELL. IN FACT, SOME
MODELS MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WELL INTO
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z GEFS/ENS ENSEMBLES SHOW
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES, BUT THE PATTERN
IS LOOKING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY DELAYED AND WETTER FOR A LONGER
DURATION THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A MODERATE TO STRONG STORM WITH PW'S AROUND 1.5" IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND A FEW POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS FRIDAY, BUT 90% OF
THE RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE AROUND 6-8 HOURS OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT, 1-3 HOURS OF
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY WITH UP TO 0.75" PER HOUR AND A 20% CHANCE
OF AS MUCH AS 1.00" PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE USUAL FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS, INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIA'S, THE
SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS (PARTICULARLY THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE) INTO
THE WESTERN VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS,
AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THOSE AREAS WILL BE
AT RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT
IT'S LIKELY THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT BURN SCARS. PROJECTED
TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS FALLING INTO THE 1-2" RANGE WITH FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN THE 2-4" RANGE. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE 5" TOTALS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY, AND MOST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND/OR SMALL
HAIL.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW BELOW 8000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE
VERY TAIL END OF IT, WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES BETWEEN
6000-8000 FEET.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
11/253 AM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW LONG SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE MAIN COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES PLACE THE TROUGH RIGHT THROUGH LA COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS BEFORE THE TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING RAIN RATES WELL BELOW A HALF INCH PER
HOUR AFTER 4AM FRIDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HINT AT RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND, (WHICH MAY
JUST BE WHY THE NBM IS CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND), HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST
THE RAIN IS OVER BEFORE THE DAY CHANGES TO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF A WEAK STORM NEXT MONDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
11/1115Z.
AT 0805Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE INVERSION. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS NEAR 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KWJF AND
KPMD. 15% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KPRB THROUGH 17Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL SITES. TIMING OF CLEARING MAY
BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS, AND THERE IS A 30% CHANCE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SITES DO NOT CLEAR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIGS AFTER
12/00Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (+/- 4 HOURS) AND MINIMUM
FLIGHT CAT (OFF +/- ONE CAT). EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS AND
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 3 HOURS, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NO CLEARING. ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 4 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
11/818 AM.
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY CALM WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL BE IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE, BUT SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A COLD FRONT FROM A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
FOR LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY, INCLUDING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 12-14
FEET, AND 5-7 FEET INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL NORTHWARD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND EVEN
WATERSPOUTS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT SCA WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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