188
FXUS66 KLOX 130131
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
531 PM PST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/507 PM.
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FARTHER SOUTH. THE
STORM WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORM EXISTS, HOWEVER,
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND BURN SCARS IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
12/201 PM.
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MAJOR IMPACTS MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT
BECAUSE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF AND ONCE THAT HAPPENS THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE STORM DECREASES DRAMATICALLY. BASED ON THE
MODEL PROJECTIONS TODAY, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A
POSITION THAT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN,
STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ELSEWHERE, HIGHEST SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND
ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME AMOUNTS IN THE
5-6 INCH RANGE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. HOURLY RATES OF A
HALF INCH WOULD BE COMMON IN THIS SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED RATES UP
TO AN INCH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, BEST CHANCES FROM
SANTA BARBARA NORTH BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO DOWN SOUTH
AS WELL.
WITH THIS IN MIND, RESIDENTS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN VULNERABLE
AREAS, SHOULD START TAKING PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY TO PREPARE FOR
THE STORM AND PROTECT THEIR INTERESTS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
POTENTIALLY CREATE MANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AREA-WIDE, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS, SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
ROADS AND HIGHWAYS, MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE CANYONS, FALLEN TREES,
ETC.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT PLACE THE UPPER LOW IN A
MUCH LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION THAT RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT LESS
RAIN. THIS IS A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO THAN THE ONE ABOVE BUT STILL
POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLARITY ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND AT THAT POINT CONSIDERATION WILL BE GIVEN TO ANY
POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
12/212 PM.
MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO RAIN
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER DAWN, BUT SMALL RAIN CHANCES LINGER DUE
TO THE CUTOFF LOW AND THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.
IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES AS MODELS ARE INDICATING THE STORM DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO COME THROUGH ON MONDAY,
CREATING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN, THOUGH ALL INDICATIONS NOW ARE
THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WOULD BE QUITE WEAK WITH ANY RAIN TOTALS
UNDER A HALF INCH. THEN DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO
INDICATIONS OF ANY SANTA ANA WIND EVENTS OR ADDITIONAL STORMS.
AVIATION
13/0106Z.
AROUND 1850Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 550 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1600 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TERMINALS FROM
KSBA NORTH. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR TERMINALS FROM KSBA SOUTH.
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND KPRB, -SHRAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 10Z-12Z WITH MVFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING COULD BE OFF
BY +/- 3 HOURS. AT KSBA -SHRA AND MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DELAYED UNTIL AROUND 18Z, BUT WITH SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
FOR VENTURA AND LA COASTAL SITES, IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
FOR 07Z TO 16Z BUT THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE CONDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
ARE POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS DO NOT MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
12/142 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR IMPACTS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TIMING. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS, AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
THERE IS AN IMMINENT (80-100 PERCENT) CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 50-90 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE WATERS WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF CHANNEL ISLANDS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THEN LIKELY DECREASE TO BELOW 10
FEET AFTER SATURDAY MORNING.
INSIDE THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS (20-30 KNOTS) WILL BE COMMON THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA
CONDITIONS (WINDS AND SEAS) MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 340>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 645-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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