279
FXUS66 KLOX 261752
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
952 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
26/921 AM.
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE COOLING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
26/938 AM.
***UPDATE***
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE OVERACHIEVED TODAY REACHING OVER 6MB WHICH
EXCEEDED EVEN THE STRONGEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER BY A SOLID 1MB. WHILE
THIS IS IMPRESSIVE, THE RESULTING WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOUT AS
EXPECTED AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO CREATE STRONGER
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME OF
THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA LUCIAS BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIND
GUSTS ARE MOSTLY UNDER 35 MPH.
IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME AREAS SOUTH
OF PT CONCEPTION ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES AT 930AM. COULD
SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE MID 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED.
LOOKS LIKE A STELLAR THANKSGIVING DAY FOR SOCAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED SO SKIES WON'T BE CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY ON TAP TODAY. 6 TO 7 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW
FROM BOTH THE N AND E WILL GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE USUAL SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. A WEAK RIDGE
IS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH 583 DAM HGTS. THESE HIER THAN NORMAL HGTS,
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALL COMBINE TO BRING 2 TO 4
DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE MID 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 8 TO
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON THANKSGIVING AND WILL ALLOW A LARGE
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA MAKING IT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY AND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HGTS
FALL TO 578 DAM. THE FALLING HGTS, INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TEAM UP TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8
DEGREES ( A SWITCH TO WARMING NORTH FLOW WILL MAKE THE PASO ROBLES
AREA THE EXCEPTION WITH 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING EXPECTED.
DESPITE THE COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST CST/VLY MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
WEAK TROFFING SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS TO NEAR NEUTRAL AND THIS WILL BRING 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS DESPITE THE ADDED
SUNSHINE. THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING
TO INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
26/1235 AM.
ALL MDLS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOW CONVERGING ON A DRY SOLUTION FOR
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S FORECAST IS NOW TOTALLY DRY AS DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COASTAL MARINE LAYER. 2
TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING FROM BETTER ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND
LOWER HGTS WILL BRING MOST CST/VLY MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
THERE IS A SLIM CHC (20 PERCENT) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER LA
COUNTY ON SUNDAY AS A MINIMUM OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING AN INSIDE
SLIDER EAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PICK UP SOME MOISTURE. THE MUCH
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE A DRY INSIDE SLIDER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FALLING HGTS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL COOL TEMPS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 DEGREES. THIS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO 3 TO
6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
NORTH WINDS WILL SET UP BEHIND THE INSIDE SLIDER, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF AN EVENT.
PRETTY DULL WEATHER SLATED FOR MON AND TUE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ON
MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING TROF ON TUE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY, ALTHOUGH IF THE TROF ARRIVES A LITTLE
EARLY THERE MAY BE SOME MORNING COASTAL STRATUS ON TUESDAY. LOOK
FOR 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AND LITTLE
CHANGE ON TUESDAY.
THE MDLS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DO HINT AT A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE WED-FRI DAYS 8-10 TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
26/1751Z.
AROUND 1626Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A WEAK
SFC BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP NEAR 600 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF
21 C.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
FOR V/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AT KPRB. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED THRU FCST PD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
26/746 AM.
CONDITIONS WILL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM CAYUCOS TO MORRO BAY AND FROM POINT MUGU TO TOPANGA
BEACH AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD GUSTS TO 25
KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY (60% CHANCE) INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL, WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE LOW.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, AND 4 TO 6 FEET INSIDE THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE
WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR
ZONES 88-358-369-371-372-374-375. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LUND/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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