220
FXUS66 KLOX 272017
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1217 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/1114 AM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
27/1135 AM.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKED WEDNESDAY AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
UP TODAY AND SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, WILL BE JUST
AS WORM AS YESTERDAY, COASTAL AREAS SHOULD FEEL AN EARLIER SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
A RAPID RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER TO THE BEACHES BY THEN AS WELL.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AT ONE TIME THIS SYSTEM HAD A CHANCE TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
AREA BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR
TO THE EAST. INSTEAD, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. OTHERWISE, JUST A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BUT OTHERWISE
PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
27/1156 AM.
ON MONDAY THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
PREVIOUS TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT QUITE ON BOARD
WITH THIS YET, BUT THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN A 4-6MB
OFFSHORE GRADIENT TO THE EAST MONDAY AND THE GEFS DOES INDICATE
SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS A VERY SIMILAR LOOK AND
FEEL TO THE CURRENT OFFSHORE PATTERN WITH A STRONG GRADIENT BUT
LACKING IN UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE COLD ADVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MINOR
WARM UP MONDAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE TRANSVERSE
RANGE.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN TO ONSHORE TUESDAY
LEADING TO A COOLING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH COMES THROUGH. THERE
ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS ON
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, BUT
THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE TROUGH STAYING FARTHER EAST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
27/1717Z.
AROUND 1614Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SFC-
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP NEAR 800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHICH
HAS A 40% CHC OF V/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z TO 17Z FRIDAY, & KLGB
WITH SIMILAR ODDS OF LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z TO 16Z FRIDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. LOW CHANCE
(10%) OF LIFR CIGS 13Z-18Z FRIDAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7-8 KNOTS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
27/739 AM.
***UPDATE***
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON WINDS AND SEAS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL ADAMANT ON A COASTAL JET DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN WATERS (PZZ670). STAY TUNED FOR
AFTERNOON UPDATE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
LOCALIZED GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM CAYUCOS TO MORRO BAY AND FROM POINT MUGU TO TOPANGA BEACH
THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND/OR
SEAS ARE EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN 10 TO 30NM FROM THE SHORE AND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITHIN 5NM ARE LOW, BUT HIGHEST
ON FRIDAY, AND NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEAS
INCREASING TO AROUND SCA LEVELS OF 10 FT FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND, IF NOT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BRIEF DIPS BELOW
10 FT AT TIMES.
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS PEAKING AT 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...KL/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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