124
FXUS66 KLOX 280029
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
429 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/1114 AM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
27/1135 AM.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKED WEDNESDAY AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
UP TODAY AND SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, WILL BE JUST
AS WORM AS YESTERDAY, COASTAL AREAS SHOULD FEEL AN EARLIER SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
A RAPID RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER TO THE BEACHES BY THEN AS WELL.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AT ONE TIME THIS SYSTEM HAD A CHANCE TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
AREA BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR
TO THE EAST. INSTEAD, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. OTHERWISE, JUST A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BUT OTHERWISE
PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
27/1156 AM.
ON MONDAY THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
PREVIOUS TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT QUITE ON BOARD
WITH THIS YET, BUT THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN A 4-6MB
OFFSHORE GRADIENT TO THE EAST MONDAY AND THE GEFS DOES INDICATE
SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS A VERY SIMILAR LOOK AND
FEEL TO THE CURRENT OFFSHORE PATTERN WITH A STRONG GRADIENT BUT
LACKING IN UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE COLD ADVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MINOR
WARM UP MONDAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE TRANSVERSE
RANGE.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN TO ONSHORE TUESDAY
LEADING TO A COOLING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH COMES THROUGH. THERE
ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS ON
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, BUT
THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE TROUGH STAYING FARTHER EAST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
28/0002Z.
AT 2303Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION UP TO 1500 FT AND A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF PACKAGE. AT KPRB AND KSMO
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z TO 17Z,
AND A 10% CHANCE AT KOXR AND KSBA.
THERE IS 30% CHANCE THAT NO CIGS DEVELOP KLGB AND KLAX.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND
COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7-8 KNOTS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
27/239 PM.
A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND BORDERLINE SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS (PZZ670). THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO PZZ673 AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, CONDITIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MEET SCA
CRITERIA EVEN BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CHANCES DO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT STILL
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND BORDERLINE. FOR ALL INNER WATERS, CONDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE AND LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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