391
FXUS66 KLOX 280636
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1036 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/625 PM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
27/643 PM.
***UPDATE***
AFTER A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO SANTA
ANA WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE COAST
AND VALLEYS AS GRADIENTS TREND FROM OFFSHORE TO WEAKLY ONSHORE.
HIGHS SHOULD DECREASE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE FOR THESE
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS, INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, HIGHS WILL WARM
BY AROUND THE SAME AMOUNT. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY,
THEN A SLIGHT REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN OF WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW.
MEANWHILE, UNDER THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKED WEDNESDAY AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
UP TODAY AND SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, WILL BE JUST
AS WORM AS YESTERDAY, COASTAL AREAS SHOULD FEEL AN EARLIER SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
A RAPID RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER TO THE BEACHES BY THEN AS WELL.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AT ONE TIME THIS SYSTEM HAD A CHANCE TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
AREA BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR
TO THE EAST. INSTEAD, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. OTHERWISE, JUST A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BUT OTHERWISE
PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
27/1156 AM.
ON MONDAY THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
PREVIOUS TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT QUITE ON BOARD
WITH THIS YET, BUT THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN A 4-6MB
OFFSHORE GRADIENT TO THE EAST MONDAY AND THE GEFS DOES INDICATE
SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS A VERY SIMILAR LOOK AND
FEEL TO THE CURRENT OFFSHORE PATTERN WITH A STRONG GRADIENT BUT
LACKING IN UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE COLD ADVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MINOR
WARM UP MONDAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE TRANSVERSE
RANGE.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN TO ONSHORE TUESDAY
LEADING TO A COOLING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH COMES THROUGH. THERE
ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS ON
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, BUT
THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE TROUGH STAYING FARTHER EAST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
28/0635Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SFC BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 1400 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS. EXCEPT FOR KSMO AND KLGB (A 25
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS 11Z-17Z) AND KLAX (A 40 PERCENT CHC OF NO
CIGS).
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 17Z THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
27/829 PM.
A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND BORDERLINE SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS (PZZ670). THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO PZZ673 AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, CONDITIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MEET SCA
CRITERIA EVEN BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CHANCES DO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT STILL
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND BORDERLINE. FOR ALL INNER WATERS, CONDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE AND LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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