050
FXUS66 KLOX 281702
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/849 AM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. A MILD SANTA ANA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
CREATING BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THEN
TURNING COOLER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
28/900 AM.
***UPDATE***
MINIMAL IF ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AND THERE WERE SOME PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH BAY
AREA WITH A 500' MARINE LAYER DEPTH. EXPECTING THAT TO DEEPEN
TONIGHT TO AROUND 1000 FEET BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO STAY OUT OF
THE VALLEYS AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECTING SOME FOG TO
HIT THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HGTS REALLY
DO NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING IS EVEN
WEAKER AND ITS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER MARINE LAYER
STRATUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
A WEAK LONG WAVE POS TILT TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. IT IS DRY AND THERE IS NO CHC OF RAIN. IT WILL LIKELY
HELP THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ALOFT SET UP OVER THE AREA, GUSTY SUB
ADVISORY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.
COOLER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE TROF WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS 2 TO 4
DEGREES AND CST/VLY MAX TEMPS WILL END UP IN THE 60S WITH A
SPRINKLING OF LOWER 70 DEGREE READINGS. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 2 TO 4
DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
28/1205 AM.
THE USUAL END RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER IS A
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AND MONDAY WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. ALL OF THE
USUAL SANTA ANA PARAMETERS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AND DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ONE TO GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. IN FACT, THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CHASE AWAY THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COAST. BY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
SUNNY EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL SEE NOTICEABLE COOLING AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN FROM
THE NE.
ENSEMBLE BASED FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL
OF THIS FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WILL BE MORE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 2 OR 3
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE CSTS/VLYS, BUT THE SHUTTING OFF OF THE
COOL AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 3
DEGREES OF WARMING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
NOT MUCH MDL AGREEMENT FOR THE WED/THU FORECAST AS THE MDLS
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE A RETROGRADING TROF (GFS) OR CUT OFF LOW (EC).
MDL CONSENSUS (SUCH THAT IT IS) GIVES THE BEST CHC OF RAIN TO THE
LA/VTA COUNTY AREA. COOLER AND CLOUDIER ON WED, BUT THURSDAY'S
TEMPS REALLY DEPEND ON WHAT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
28/1128Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
INVERSION WAS AT 1400 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS, EXCEPT FOR KSMO (A 25 PERCENT CHC OF
LIFR CIG/VIS THRU 17Z) AND KLAX/KLGB (CIG/VIS WILL VARY AND VFR
TRANSITION COULD BE OFF BY +/- 90 MINUTES).
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 17Z THEN GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF VFR CONDS
ARRIVING AT 15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF DENSE FOG WITH RVRS
LESS THAN 800FT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT
REMAINING BELOW 7KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
28/747 AM.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE BELOW
SCA LEVELS CURRENTLY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BORDERLINE SCA SEAS POSSIBLE 30NM
FROM CENTRAL COAST SHORELINE (PZZ670). THESE CONDITIONS COULD
SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ673 AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, CONDITIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MEET SCA CRITERIA EVEN BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCES DO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT STILL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND BORDERLINE. FOR ALL INNER WATERS,
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND.
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE AND LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KL/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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