846
FXUS66 KLOX 282129
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
129 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/1254 PM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THEN TURNING COOLER TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
28/116 PM.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. COAST AND VALLEYS ARE 5-15 DEGREES COOLER AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY IS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND MAY SNEAK INTO SOME OF THE LOWER
COASTAL VALLEYS LATER ON. A LITTLE MORE COOLING MOST AREAS AS WELL
BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ALMOST A
CARBON COPY OF SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY FAVOR AT LEAST A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA PATTERN MONDAY AND NOW THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE STARTING TO CATCH ON. THE NAM IS FORECASTING A -5.1MB LAX/DAG
GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING AND THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN INCHING CLOSER
TO THE 6MB RANGE. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS TEMPS
ALOFT ARE MUCH COLDER SO HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WITH THE MOST RECENT SANTA ANA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE
LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR COAST AND VALLEYS WHICH IS COMMON A
FEW DAYS OUT. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS TOMORROW AND THE NBM ISN'T
CATCHING ON THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES. GIVEN THE GRADIENTS AND BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT TO
THE TUNE OF 40KT AT 950MB THIS EVENT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
GENERATE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MONDAY ACROSS THE USUAL SANTA
ANA FAVORED AREAS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA
LUCIAS AS WELL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
28/128 PM.
MONDAY'S SANTA ANA EVENT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK ONSHORE TUESDAY
AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REACHING THE BEACHES.
OTHERWISE, A QUIET DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL EXHIBITING A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BUT
AT LEAST HALF OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING. IT COULD ALSO BE DRY WITH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS,
BUT THE TRENDS FAVOR THE LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS UNDER A HALF INCH, AND MOSTLY UNDER A
QUARTER INCH.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW RAIN ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE
AREA A FEW ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. MOST, THOUGH FAVOR A DRY DAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
28/1741Z.
AT 1654Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATS MAY BE OFF
BY ONE OR TWO WHEN CIGS ARE PRESENT.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF V/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB FROM 13Z TO 17Z
SAT. 15% CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS AT KSMX FROM 10Z TO 16Z SAT. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IN KSBA WHERE ARRIVAL OF CIGS COULD BE OFF +/- 4 HOURS
WITH A 30% CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE OR REMAIN INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z SAT. ARRIVAL
OF IFR CIGS 005-009 WITH 2SM TO 4SM VSBYS MAY BE OFF +/- 2.5 HOURS
FROM CURRENT FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AFTER 18Z SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 10Z TO 16Z SAT.
MARINE
28/109 PM.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE BELOW
SCA LEVELS CURRENTLY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BORDERLINE SCA SEAS POSSIBLE 30NM
FROM CENTRAL COAST SHORELINE (PZZ670). THESE CONDITIONS COULD
SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ673 AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, CONDITIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MEET SCA CRITERIA EVEN BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCES DO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT STILL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND BORDERLINE AT BEST. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS ALL INNER WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE AND LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCA WINDS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU ON
MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS ON WED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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