729
FXUS66 KLOX 290712
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1112 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/519 PM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THEN TURNING COOLER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
28/825 PM.
***UPDATE***
A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WAS OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS, WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
CURRENT MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT LAX IS AROUND 900 FEET. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS AND
COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH CHANCES FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. COAST AND VALLEYS ARE 5-15 DEGREES COOLER AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY IS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND MAY SNEAK INTO SOME OF THE LOWER
COASTAL VALLEYS LATER ON. A LITTLE MORE COOLING MOST AREAS AS WELL
BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ALMOST A
CARBON COPY OF SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY FAVOR AT LEAST A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA PATTERN MONDAY AND NOW THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE STARTING TO CATCH ON. THE NAM IS FORECASTING A -5.1MB LAX/DAG
GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING AND THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN INCHING CLOSER
TO THE 6MB RANGE. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS TEMPS
ALOFT ARE MUCH COLDER SO HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WITH THE MOST RECENT SANTA ANA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE
LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR COAST AND VALLEYS WHICH IS COMMON A
FEW DAYS OUT. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS TOMORROW AND THE NBM ISN'T
CATCHING ON THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES. GIVEN THE GRADIENTS AND BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT TO
THE TUNE OF 40KT AT 950MB THIS EVENT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
GENERATE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MONDAY ACROSS THE USUAL SANTA
ANA FAVORED AREAS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA
LUCIAS AS WELL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
28/128 PM.
MONDAY'S SANTA ANA EVENT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK ONSHORE TUESDAY
AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REACHING THE BEACHES.
OTHERWISE, A QUIET DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL EXHIBITING A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BUT
AT LEAST HALF OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING. IT COULD ALSO BE DRY WITH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS,
BUT THE TRENDS FAVOR THE LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS UNDER A HALF INCH, AND MOSTLY UNDER A
QUARTER INCH.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW RAIN ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE
AREA A FEW ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. MOST, THOUGH FAVOR A DRY DAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
29/0711Z.
AT 0545Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE COASTAL TAFS. TIMING OF VFR TRANSITION
MAY BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 90 MINUTES. CIG AND VIS WILL VARY BUT
LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL
TIMES OF LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING WITH 02Z ARRIVAL POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB 13Z-17Z.
KBUR AND KVNY HAVE A 25% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
1SM OVC004 CONDS 10Z-15Z. VFR CONDS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 18Z. IFR
CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 300200Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE
OF 1SM OVC004 CONDS 12Z-16Z
MARINE
28/822 PM.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE BELOW
SCA LEVELS CURRENTLY, THERE WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA SEAS POSSIBLE
30NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SHORELINE (PZZ670). SCA WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING PZZ673 AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY.
AT THAT POINT, SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL END ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. THEN, CONDITIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MEET SCA CRITERIA EVEN
BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCES DO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT STILL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
BORDERLINE AT BEST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS ALL INNER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE AND LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO
MALIBU ON MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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