980
FXUS66 KLOX 291102
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
302 AM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/1149 PM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THEN TURNING COOLER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
29/243 AM.
A 1000 FT DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE COASTS THIS MORNING DESPITE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE EARLY AFTER WILL SLOW THE CLEARING
AND ALLOW FOR AN EARLY RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE BEACHES. LOOK
FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE
TO THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN
FROM THE HIGH DESERT AND THE INTERIOR WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
DESPITE THE COOLING, ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NEARSHORE WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY SAVE FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS AWAY. ASIDE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS IT WILL BE A SUNNY MORNING.
SKIES, HOWEVER, WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAM INTO AND OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS
COOLING WILL CONTINUE AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL ANOTHER 2 TO 3
LOCALLY 5 DEGREES EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WHICH
WILL WARM SOME IN THE ABSENCE OF COOL AIR ADVECTION.
A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT
5 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH ABOUT 3 FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT AT 850MB AND A LITTLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS (40-50 MPH) LIKELY
THROUGH THE SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A BIG WARM UP - ONLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS. THE INTERIOR WILL SEE COOLING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FROM THE N AND E. THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING: 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THE LONG BEACH AREA, WESTERN SBA COUNTY
AND THE PASO ROBLES AREA WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE TOO WEAK
TO PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/1231 AM.
DRY NW FLOW SETS UP ON TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE PUSH
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NON ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS
IN THE MORNING. THE DAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BUT BY HE AFTERNOON
IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDS AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN. A TYPICAL
POST SANTA ANA DAY AS FAR AS TEMPS GO WITH COOLING AT THE
CSTS/VLYS DUE TO WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
STILL NOT MUCH MDL AGREEMENT FOR THE WED/THU TIME PERIOD. AN
IMPULSE WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA AND WILL EITHER TURN INTO A
FAIRLY SHARP INSIDE SLIDER THAT IS A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD THAN
USUAL (GFS) OR COOL CUT OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES OVER SBA COUNTY.
LOOKING AT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF THEM FAVOR
RAIN WITH THE BEST CHC OVER LA COUNTY. THERE IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT
CHC THAT SOME RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE ENTIRE 2 DAY PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IF ANY) WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH LIKELY UNDER A
QUARTER INCH. OTHER SOLUTIONS JUST BRING SOME WINDS TO THE AREA.
DEFINITELY COOLER WEDNESDAY. MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR WARMING
THURSDAY BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THE MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SANTA ANA WILL DEVELOP
BUT IT WILL BE AT WORST A MODERATE ONE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMALS.
AVIATION
29/0711Z.
AT 0545Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE COASTAL TAFS. TIMING OF VFR TRANSITION
MAY BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 90 MINUTES. CIG AND VIS WILL VARY BUT
LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL
TIMES OF LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING WITH 02Z ARRIVAL POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB 13Z-17Z.
KBUR AND KVNY HAVE A 25% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
1SM OVC004 CONDS 10Z-15Z. VFR CONDS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 18Z. IFR
CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 300200Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE
OF 1SM OVC004 CONDS 12Z-16Z
MARINE
28/822 PM.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE BELOW
SCA LEVELS CURRENTLY, THERE WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA SEAS POSSIBLE
30NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SHORELINE (PZZ670). SCA WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING PZZ673 AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY.
AT THAT POINT, SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL END ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. THEN, CONDITIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MEET SCA CRITERIA EVEN
BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCES DO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT STILL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
BORDERLINE AT BEST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS ALL INNER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE AND LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO
MALIBU ON MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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