222
FXUS66 KLOX 291710
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/1149 PM.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THEN TURNING COOLER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
29/909 AM.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR AS THE MARINE
INVERSION LIFTS OUT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE
AREA TODAY AS HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE TOP OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS AND SOME VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS
TICK UP OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE
TONIGHT. A COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
BROADER TROUGHING WILL REPLACE THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH ABOUT 3 FROM THE
NORTH. THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT AT 850MB AND A LITTLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS (40-50 MPH) LIKELY
THROUGH THE SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A BIG WARM UP - ONLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS. THE INTERIOR WILL SEE COOLING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FROM THE N AND E. THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING: 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THE LONG BEACH AREA, WESTERN SBA COUNTY
AND THE PASO ROBLES AREA WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE TOO WEAK
TO PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/1231 AM.
DRY NW FLOW SETS UP ON TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE PUSH
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NON ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS
IN THE MORNING. THE DAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BUT BY HE AFTERNOON
IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDS AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN. A TYPICAL
POST SANTA ANA DAY AS FAR AS TEMPS GO WITH COOLING AT THE
CSTS/VLYS DUE TO WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
STILL NOT MUCH MDL AGREEMENT FOR THE WED/THU TIME PERIOD. AN
IMPULSE WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA AND WILL EITHER TURN INTO A
FAIRLY SHARP INSIDE SLIDER THAT IS A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD THAN
USUAL (GFS) OR COOL CUT OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES OVER SBA COUNTY.
LOOKING AT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF THEM FAVOR
RAIN WITH THE BEST CHC OVER LA COUNTY. THERE IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT
CHC THAT SOME RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE ENTIRE 2 DAY PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IF ANY) WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH LIKELY UNDER A
QUARTER INCH. OTHER SOLUTIONS JUST BRING SOME WINDS TO THE AREA.
DEFINITELY COOLER WEDNESDAY. MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR WARMING
THURSDAY BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THE MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SANTA ANA WILL DEVELOP
BUT IT WILL BE AT WORST A MODERATE ONE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMALS.
AVIATION
29/1707Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 600 FEET DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
16 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR KBUR, KVNY, KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR COASTAL SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECASTS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MARINE LAYER. TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST
WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES OFF BY 1 CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. ALSO, THERE IS
A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-14Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
29/907 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR SUNDAY,
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY ACROSS
PZZ670/673. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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