704
FXUS66 KLOX 301623
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
823 AM PST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/245 AM.
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS WITH
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT
OF CONCEPTION.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
30/823 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH A
THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD OF THE ENTIRE AREA.
CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MARINE INVERSION RANGING IN DEPTH
FROM AROUND 1000 FEET NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TO AROUND 2000
FEET SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT STRATUS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. MORNING TEMP STUDY DATA
INDICATES A BIT COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A TOUCH STRONGER
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. SO, MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST SUITE, ATTENTION TURNS TO WEAK-MODERATE SANTA
ANA WINDS ON MONDAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MARINE LAYER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SPOTTY THIS MORNING BUT IS STARTING
TO FILL IN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND ONSHORE BUT THAT WILL BE REVERSING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER DROPS OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE MEANTIME, ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN, FORCING A COOL AND DENSE AIR
MASS TO SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH GRADIENTS TURNING
OFFSHORE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 5 AND 6MB. INTERIOR AREAS LIKE THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INLAND SLO COUNTY WILL NOTICE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. ON THE OCEAN SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THAT DENSE AIR DESCENDS AND COMPRESSES IT WILL
WARM UP BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE LAST EVENT WHEN HIGHS WERE IN THE
80S. INSTEAD HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES. WITH STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT ALOFT AND MORE OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY.
THE SANTA ANAS WILL BE A ONE OFF AS GRADIENTS QUICK SHIFT BACK TO
ONSHORE TUESDAY AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH EAST OF THE
SIERRA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS BUT WARM A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
30/346 AM.
THIS NEXT TROUGH, WHILE STILL AN INSIDE SLIDER, DOES MAKE A CLOSER
APPROACH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
DROP A LITTLE RAIN OVER MAINLY LA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER
INCH, AND IN MANY CASES LESS THAN A TENTH. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S, EXCEPT 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COULD GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY AS MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.
DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRI/SAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
AVIATION
30/1157Z.
AT 1111Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF THE SFC-
BASED INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KWJF, AND KPMD TAFS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES
OFF BY 1 CATEGORY. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS AT KCMA
AND KOXR THROUGH 17Z SUN, AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z MON. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF CONDS REMAINING VFR AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SITES MAY SCATTER AND REFORM OR BOUNCE
CIGS FREQUENTLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LACK OF MARINE LAYER AND
PRESENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDS AFTER 17Z AT ALL SITES WITH CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SUN- MON.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. VIS
MAY BOUNCE FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
OF VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER CIGS SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN
UNDER 7 KT.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 17Z, THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
30/109 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH THIS MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION, THUS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ670/673
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS. ON THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST, EXCEPT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SANTA ANA/NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH
TO SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY EXTEND OUT PAST ANACAPA ISLAND. THESE
WINDS, SHOULD THEY EXTEND DOWN TO THE COAST, WOULD PEAK MONDAY
MORNING, THEN MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE INCREASING BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LUND/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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