295
FXUS66 KLOX 302336
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
336 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/245 AM.
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS WITH
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT
OF CONCEPTION.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
30/208 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AN INSIDE SLIDER WILL DROP ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT/MONDAY, TURNING WEAKLY ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY THEN MORE OFFSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PEAK NEAR -5.0 MB WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST. LOOKING AT HREF DATA, THERE IS 70-90% CHANCE OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ACROSS THE SANTA ANA WIND
CORRIDOR OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES. SO, HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES
FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREAS. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK DIURNAL FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE INSIDE SLIDER
DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVELS WINDS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO, SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
SECONDARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES, MORE
SPECIFICALLY LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. SO, HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TEMPERATURE ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THESE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE A MORE "COOLISH" EVENT.
AS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. STRATUS SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BEFORE THE OFFSHORE WINDS KICK IN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. FOR
THE BALANCE OF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS
INDICATE A GOOD STRATUS PUSH INLAND SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION IN
RESPONSE TO THE INSIDE SLIDER BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. THERE
COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION IN RESPONSE TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE, THE INSIDE SLIDER LOOKS VERY MOISTURE
STARVED AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
30/208 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, 12Z MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH THE INSIDE SLIDER MOVING EASTWARD AND A RIDGE
"NOSING" BUILDING OVER THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE GFS
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH.
FORECAST-WISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ON THURSDAY, THE SANTA ANA WIND SHOULD PEAK IN STRENGTH WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES, BUT NOTICEABLY WEAKER WINDS ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THIS OFFSHORE WIND EVENT, THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS.
HOPEFULLY, MODELS WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
30/2335Z.
AT 2330Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF)
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY ONE
OR TWO. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB FROM
10Z TO 16Z MON. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AT
KSBP AND KSMX AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST IF REALIZED. WITH
OFFSHORE WIND PUSH ON MONDAY MORNING, EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 12Z-14Z, AND POSSIBLY
EARLIER.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES AFTER 08Z MONDAY.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR CIGS 015
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY 04Z-12Z MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
30/211 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PZZ670/673
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. ON THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NEARSHORE FROM CAYUCOS TO MORRO
BAY OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THRU FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR
NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO WESTERN SANTA MONICA WHERE SCA LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND PAST ANACAPA ISLAND AT TIMES. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE WINDS OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SCA DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.
BEACHES
30/211 PM.
A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 FEET. VERY HIGH
TIDES OF 7 TO 7.7 (MLLW) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BEACHES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL RESULT IN BEACH EROSION WITH
ISOLATED, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR WEST-NORTHWEST
FACING BEACHES FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EACH DAY.
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE FOR HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR VENTURA COASTLINE.
IN ADDITION, COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY GIVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR A COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORY
TO BE ISSUED ACROSS VENTURA COASTLINE (30% CHANCE).
WITH TIDES REMAINING HIGH AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SWELL, BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENTS COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM PST MONDAY
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-369-371-372-374. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 340. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE
362. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM PST MONDAY
FOR ZONES 375-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...BLACK/KL
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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