789
FXUS66 KLOX 011722
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
922 AM PST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
01/156 AM.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS
WITH AREAS OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SANTA ANA WINDS RETURN THURSDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
01/915 AM.
***UPDATE***
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING, BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF BURNING OFF.
MODERATE SANTA ANA ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
COORIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEEING MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
TRENDS (LAX- DAG -4, -6 RESPECTIVELY) WITH GUSTS 25 TO 45 MPH
ALREADY COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE SANTA
ANA WIND COORIDOR. WINDS MAY BE SLOW TO SURFACE ACROSS SOME
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO ERODE.
THE NEXT MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ARRIVING AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY MORNING NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS EXPECTED 30-38, EXCEPT, 25-35 FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE A FREEZE WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS
THE JET STREAM CONTINUES TO PUSH STORMS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, THEN DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS A COMMON LA
NINA SET UP AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN THIS WAY AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER. TODAY'S SANTA ANA WON'T BE A
STRONG ONE BUT ENOUGH FOR EASTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA
COUNTY AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LA COUNTY. THIS IS A MUCH
COOLER EVENT THAN THE SANTA ANA LAST WEEK AND TEMPS ACROSS COAST
AND VALLEYS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES
THROUGH THE CANYONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY THE SANTA ANAS IT WILL BE A VERY QUIET WEATHER DAY
ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE
INTERIOR.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND TURN ONSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT INSIDE SLIDER MOVES UP AND OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN NEAR THE COAST BUT
LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. RAIN CHANCES THAT HAD BEEN IN
THE FORECAST FOR WED/THU HAVE EVAPORATED AS THE SYSTEM IS STAYING
TOO FAR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL GENERATE ANOTHER WEAK TO MODERATE
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT THURSDAY IN THE SAME AREAS AS MONDAY. THERE
IS AGAIN SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS SANTA ANA SO EVEN
WITH THE BENEFIT OF DOWNSLOPE AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S IN MOST COAST/VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR AREAS ARE NO WARMER THAN THE 50S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
01/250 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS A 590DAM HIGH NOSES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HIGH
WILL EXPAND INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STEER STORMS WELL
EAST OF THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BREAK THE CYCLE COLD STORMS
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INSTEAD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (DEC 7-13) MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A LIKELY CONTINUATION OF THE SAME
WARM/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
01/1721Z.
AT 1642Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. NE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT: KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, KPMD, & KWJF. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE OFF BY 5 KTS.
LIGHT LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FCST PD.
MARINE
01/921 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NEARSHORE FROM CAYUCOS TO MORRO
BAY OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
VENTURA TO WEST OF SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND AT TIMES,
SCA LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THIS SAME AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEACHES
01/230 AM.
A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 FEET. VERY HIGH
TIDES OF 7 TO 7.7 (MLLW) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BEACHES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL AND HIGH TIDES COULD
RESULT IN BEACH EROSION WITH ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR WEST- NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
EACH DAY.
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH FUTURE UPDATES, WITH A 40% CHANCE
THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE VENTURA COAST. IN
ADDITION, COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY (DUE TO THE SURF PEAKING) GIVING THE HIGHEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE (30% CHANCE).
TIDES WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE LARGE TIDES
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SWELL, BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS COULD BE
EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374-375-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
BEACHES...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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