416
FXUS66 KLOX 030225
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
625 PM PST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
02/142 PM.
A MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT SOCAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, COLDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AWAY FROM THE COASTS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL APPROACH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL PEAK SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
02/201 PM.
AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER DAY TODAY, SANTA ANA WINDS WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A MODERATE WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COASTS, WHILE FAVORED FOOTHILLS MAY
GUST TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS, SANTA SUSANAS,
I-5 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS, WINDS WILL BE COMMON IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 55 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SAN GABRIELS AND THE SANTA SUSANAS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE TYPICAL SANTA ANA
WIND CORRIDOR FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT COASTAL AND VALLEY WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SO THE ONSET MAY BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. RELATIVE LULLS IN THE WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS INTO LATE THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL TURN
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD AT DAMAGING SPEEDS, THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
TREES TO COME DOWN MORE EASILY DUE TO WET SOILS FROM THE NOVEMBER
RAINFALL. WINDS MAY ALSO KNOCK DOWN OR BLOW AWAY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
DECORATIONS, SO BE SURE TO SECURE THOSE DECORATIONS OR KEEP THEM
SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. WHILE SOME SANTA ANA WIND EVENTS WILL
PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, THIS IS NOT ONE OF THEM. HIGHS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60’S TO LOW 70’S
WILL BE COMMON.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCOMING SANTA ANA WINDS, SOME FAIRLY COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW LIMITS MARINE AIR
INFLUENCE. FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR SLO COUNTY VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, A FREEZE WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT’S FREEZE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20’S AND 30’S
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS, WHILE
COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40’S TO
LOW 50’S. WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY CLIMB FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES OVER THE WEST COAST. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NORTHERLY
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. IF POST SANTA ANA WIND FOG IS ABLE
TO FORM, IT’LL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND COASTAL
WATERS) AND BE DENSE.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
02/202 PM.
THE PACIFIC (AND PERSISTENT) RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, PARKING ITSELF AND BECOMING MORE
ROBUST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 95TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. IT’LL BE QUITE A WARM STRETCH AS ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 70’S AND POTENTIALLY THE LOW
80’S WILL BE COMMON COME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
03/0222Z.
AT 2350Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER, AND NO INVERSION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, AND
KSBA, KWJF, AND KPMD. AT KPRB, KSMX, AND KSBA THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR CIGS FROM 13-16Z WED.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, KLGB,
KBUR, AND KVNY. ARRIVAL OF ANY CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST AND MAY BE OFF BY 1 CATEGORY AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO A
10-20% CHANCE THAT NO CIGS FORM AT SITES WHERE THEY ARE
FORECASTED. SHORT-LIVED IFR- MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (20%
CHANCE) BETWEEN 12Z-16Z WED AT KBUR AND KVNY, AND THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF BRIEF DENSE FOG (V/LIFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LA BASIN
FROM 13Z-16Z WED.
KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, CIGS MAY FOR BETWEEN
BKN008-BKN025, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10Z WED TO 20Z WED, WITH
A 30-40% CHANCE OF THE EAST WIND COMPONENT EXCEEDING 6-8KT.
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER EAST WINDS IS AROUND 13Z TO 17Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BKN008-BKN025 CIGS BETWEEN 12Z-17Z WED.
MARINE
02/159 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL THE INCOMING NW SWELL WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 FEET AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
SCA LEVELS AT TIMES, MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN THERE IS A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS
DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
SANTA ANA WIND WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR THE COASTLINE BETWEEN
VENTURA HARBOR AND SANTA MONICA. LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 343-344. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY FOR ZONE
354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 357. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LEWIS
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...HALL/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page