082
FSUS46 KLOX 231058
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
256 AM PST TUE DEC 23 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 0400 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: TUE DEC 23 2025 THROUGH MON DEC 29 2025.
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA 0.0 LGT 0.0 LGT | 0.1 0.9
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA 0.0 LGT 0.0 LGT | 0.1 0.9
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 1.2
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.35-0.55 0.30-0.60
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 50% 65%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 15%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-0500
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 1.0
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | 0.3 2.2
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.7 2.2
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.6 2.1
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.4 1.3
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.40-0.70 0.75-1.05
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 80% 100%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 30% 55%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0000-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 2.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.2 1.2
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.2 1.1
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.6 2.0
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | 0.2 1.0
MORC1:MOORPARK 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 0.7
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.3 1.4
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.50-0.60 0.75-1.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 60% 100%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 15% 55%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0100-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 20%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 2.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | 0.2 1.9
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 0.8
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 1.1
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | 0.1 1.0
SAUC1:SAUGUS 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 0.9
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | LGT 0.6
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.2 1.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.30-0.50 0.55-0.85
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 45% 90%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 40%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-0500
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 20%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.75 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION:
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A SECONDARY PULSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKEY RANGE FROM 3-8 INCHES
ACORSS COASTAL AND VALLEY WITH 6-12+ INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 0.50 TO 1.25
INCH PER HOUR RANGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT WILL DROP INTO THE 5500-6500 FOOT RANGE
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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