891
FSUS46 KLOX 232010
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1208 PM PST TUE DEC 23 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 1600 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: TUE DEC 23 2025 THROUGH MON DEC 29 2025.
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA LGT LGT 0.1 0.5 | 0.4 0.3
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA LGT LGT 0.1 0.5 | 0.4 0.3
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE LGT 0.0 0.2 0.8 | 0.9 0.3
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.30-0.50 0.25-0.55
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 50% 60%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 15%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0100-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA LGT 0.0 0.2 0.8 | 0.7 0.2
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO LGT LGT 0.4 1.4 | 2.3 0.8
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 | 2.3 0.6
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 | 2.2 0.7
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY LGT 0.1 0.3 0.6 | 1.8 0.5
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.40-0.80 0.70-1.10
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 95% 100%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 40% 55%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0000-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 2.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON LGT LGT 0.2 0.5 | 2.4 0.7
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON LGT LGT 0.2 0.4 | 2.4 0.8
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM LGT 0.2 0.5 1.0 | 3.0 0.8
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY LGT LGT 0.2 0.4 | 1.9 0.5
MORC1:MOORPARK LGT LGT 0.1 0.3 | 1.9 0.7
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH LGT 0.1 0.2 0.5 | 2.5 0.7
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.40-0.60 0.75-1.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 60% 100%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 15% 55%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0100-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 2.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT LGT LGT 0.4 1.1 | 4.3 2.9
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM LGT 0.0 0.1 0.3 | 1.3 2.4
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM LGT LGT 0.2 0.4 | 2.3 1.9
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE LGT LGT 0.2 0.4 | 2.1 2.0
SAUC1:SAUGUS LGT 0.0 0.1 0.4 | 2.3 1.2
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA LGT LGT LGT 0.2 | 1.4 1.3
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA LGT LGT 0.2 0.4 | 2.3 1.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.25-0.45 0.50-0.80
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 45% 95%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 35%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-0500
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 20%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION:
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A SECONDARY PULSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKEY RANGE FROM 3-8 INCHES
ACORSS COASTAL AND VALLEY WITH 6-12+ INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 0.50 TO 1.50
INCH PER HOUR RANGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT WILL DROP INTO THE 5500-6500 FOOT RANGE
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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