004
FXUS66 KLOX 250432
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
832 PM PST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
24/206 PM.
THE FIRST STORM IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BUT ANOTHER STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PATER OFF BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
24/807 PM.
***UPDATE***
A RAINY DAY THAT WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR A WHILE. AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER PASSED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS IT DUMPED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE CSTS/VLY AND 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, FAR INTERIOR AND
ANTELOPE VLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. THERE WAS PLENTY OF
FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE MAJOR RIVERS.
THERE IS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SBA COUNTY AND WESTERN
VTA COUNTY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH VTA COUNTY AND WESTERN LA
COUNTY THROUGH 11PM. THIS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY NOT DROP MUCH MORE
THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FLATTER PORTIONS BUT THE FOOTHILLS
AND MTNS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN. DUE TO THE
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONTINUED RUNOFF, FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH DAWN.
THE LATEST HI-REZ MDLS SHOW A LULL AFTER THIS IMPULSE. BY DAWN
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ENTER SLO COUNTY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN A THIRD (AND HOPEFULLY FINAL) IMPULSE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CSTS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN
USUAL SINCE ALL OF THE AREA IS SUPER SATURATED AND ALL ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
***ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN COMING ON CHRISTMAS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY***
A POWERFUL STORM THAT BROUGHT UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY, UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE, AND WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 80 MPH IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OUT OF LA
COUNTY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT DESPITE THE BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN,
AREA ROADWAYS TONIGHT WILL BE IN BAD SHAPE AFTER TODAY'S HAMMERING
STORM THAT GENERATED NUMEROUS MUD AND ROCK SLIDES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER AND DEBRIS ON SOME ROADS.
AT THAT POINT A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST OF CHRISTMAS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH RAIN RATES UP
TO A 0.50-0.75 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
WATER THAT FELL TODAY IT WON'T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MUD AND ROCK
SLIDES THROUGH THE CANYONS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING ON AREA ROADS
AND HIGHWAYS. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER 2-5
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES, THOUGH AGAIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LOCALLY PUSH THAT HIGHER.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
24/233 PM.
NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT ON THE SUNDAY UPPER PATTERN. BUT NO
MDL IS SHOWING ANY RAIN AND HGTS A FAIRLY SIMILAR SO DO NOT THINK
THE MDL DISAGREEMENT WILL AFFECT THE FCST TOO MUCH. THE BIG NEWS
IS THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
OR AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WITH THE SUNSHINE AND MOST CST/VLY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 65
DEGREES.
MDL DISAGREEMENT WORSENS ON MONDAY, BUT AT LEAST THE ENSEMBLES
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DRY DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WILL BE DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ANOTHER 2 TO 4
DEGREES AND MOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
ROUGHLY 60% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A SYSTEM ARRIVING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE'S A BIG SPREAD IN THE RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH SOME AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AND OTHERS INDICATING LITTLE
TO NO RAIN.
AVIATION
24/2355Z.
AT 23Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AND VIS WILL
VARY FREQUENTLY AS SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS A 10-15 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GENERATE TURBULENCE OVER AND NEAR TO HIER TRRN.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY
AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHC OF A
TSTM THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EAST WIND COMPONENT OVER 10KT THROUGH AT TIMES THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY
AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHC OF A
TSTM THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL GENERATE
PERIODS OF TURBC AND LLWS.
MARINE
24/831 PM.
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS, ROUGH
SHORT- PERIOD SEAS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
VESSELS, ESPECIALLY SMALL VESSELS, ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO REMAIN
IN SAFE HARBOR FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM, AS THESE CONDITIONS
CAN SINK BOATS. SOUTH-FACING HARBORS WILL ALSO BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE SOUTH SWELL AND STRONG WINDS.
DETAILS:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, LIKELY STRONGEST
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS, ESPECIALLY FOR UNSHELTERED SOUTH-
FACING COASTLINES & AREAS NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION.
SOUTHERLY SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL BRING ELEVATED, CHOPPY CONDITIONS
AT SOUTH-FACING HARBOR ENTRANCES. THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING A THREAT
OF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING
AND A SMALL CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-340>353-369-370-376>383-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>383-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 354>358-362-366>368-371>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...BLACK/RORKE/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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