107
FXUS66 KLOX 240444
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
844 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
23/814 PM.
A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. BREEZY
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
23/843 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY WAS MARKED BY COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 50S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES, AND LINGERING CLOUDS SUPPRESSED WARMING FOR THE COASTS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE INSIDE SLIDER FOR THIS WEEKEND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
COOLER 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
WERE COOLED ALONG THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST AND WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY COASTS, AND MAY NEED FURTHER COOLING FOR
MORE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MARINE LAYER CLOUDS STRUGGLE TO CLEAR
AGAIN. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD
IN SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS A LITTLE
INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
CREATING A DEEP MARINE LAYER UP TO AROUND 2000-3000 FEET. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE WILL BE UP AGAINST THE SOUTH
FACING FOOTHILLS BUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
COULD SEE SOME MISTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY QUIET AND DEVOID OF ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH JUST BRIEF LITTLE SYSTEMS BREAKING THROUGH WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE
INSIDE SLIDER, POSSIBLY WITH SOME LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA
WINDS IN THE LA MOUNTAINS AND 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COAST AND VALLEYS. THIS ALONG WITH RETURNING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST ALL WEEK.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
23/223 PM.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT LIKELY OF
MINIMAL CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH WHETHER
THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AND FORM INTO A SLOW
MOVING CUT OFF LOW OR HANG TOGETHER AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVOLVES THERE COULD BE SOME
COOLING THU/FRI, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON MORE IMPRESSIVE
WARMING NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND MID TO HIGH 70S
FOR COASTAL AREAS.
AVIATION
24/0327Z.
AT 0021Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THERE WAS
NO INVERSION.
OVERALL FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TAFS,
BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS. LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL/VALLEY SITES IS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE
CIGS WILL REACH COAST AND VALLEY SITES.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF CIGS RETURNING AT IFR LEVELS AFTER 03Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST.
MARINE
23/817 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THERE ARE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT BETWEEN SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND AND POINT CONCEPTION WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SCA. IN ADDITION, CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FEET AT 8 SECONDS ARE AFFECTING THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF
POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA,
THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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