838
FXUS66 KLOX 240713
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1113 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
23/814 PM.
A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. BREEZY
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
23/843 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY WAS MARKED BY COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 50S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES, AND LINGERING CLOUDS SUPPRESSED WARMING FOR THE COASTS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE INSIDE SLIDER FOR THIS WEEKEND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
COOLER 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
WERE COOLED ALONG THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST AND WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY COASTS, AND MAY NEED FURTHER COOLING FOR
MORE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MARINE LAYER CLOUDS STRUGGLE TO CLEAR
AGAIN. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD
IN SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS A LITTLE
INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
CREATING A DEEP MARINE LAYER UP TO AROUND 2000-3000 FEET. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE WILL BE UP AGAINST THE SOUTH
FACING FOOTHILLS BUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
COULD SEE SOME MISTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY QUIET AND DEVOID OF ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH JUST BRIEF LITTLE SYSTEMS BREAKING THROUGH WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE
INSIDE SLIDER, POSSIBLY WITH SOME LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA
WINDS IN THE LA MOUNTAINS AND 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COAST AND VALLEYS. THIS ALONG WITH RETURNING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST ALL WEEK.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
23/223 PM.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT LIKELY OF
MINIMAL CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH WHETHER
THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AND FORM INTO A SLOW
MOVING CUT OFF LOW OR HANG TOGETHER AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVOLVES THERE COULD BE SOME
COOLING THU/FRI, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON MORE IMPRESSIVE
WARMING NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND MID TO HIGH 70S
FOR COASTAL AREAS.
AVIATION
24/0712Z.
AT 0521Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 C.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TAFS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
REST. CLEARING TIMES FOR CST/VLY TAFS MAY BE UP TO 2 HOURS LATER
THAN FCST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF DRIZZLE 12Z-17Z AT CST/VLY
SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 20Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 20Z.
MARINE
23/1101 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. HOWEVER, FOR
PZZ676 THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT SUNDAY MORNING AS
EASTERLY WINDS PUSH OFF THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ZONE. FOR THE
INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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