361
FXUS66 KLOX 250229
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
629 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
24/113 PM.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SANTA ANA
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE. THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
24/628 PM.
***UPDATE***
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
HAS PUSHED LOW CLOUDS WELL OFF THE COAST BEYOND OUR COASTAL WATERS.
SFC OBS SHOW 20-35 MPH NE WINDS OCCURING ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL
MTNS AS OF 5 PM. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
SW IN COVERAGE TO THE MAILBU COAST AND OXNARD PLAIN OVERNIGHT.
LAX-DAG PG VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK WINDS ACROSS THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS. SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA SUSANA MTNS WILL
EXPERIENCE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT RADIATION
FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A 40% CHC THAT IT DOES NOT DEVELOP.
TEMPS ARE ALSO A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT (SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION), BUT
ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH COLDER ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN REGARDS
TO GRADUAL WARMING (1-4 F EACH DAY) AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THRU
RIDGE CREATING PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY ERASED A MARINE LAYER THAT WAS
CLOSE TO 5000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN FROM SANTA BARBARA TO LA. WE'RE NOW SQUARELY IN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SANTA ANA PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TREK
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO ARIZONA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH ARRIVED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DESCEND INTO THE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS
AND HIGHER VALLEYS OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL OR DECREASE IN WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE RETURNING OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON SUNDAY WITH LOW
END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANNA'S
AND SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LA/VENTURA
COAST/VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST ACROSS
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WITH SPORADIC OFFSHORE WINDS CREATING MORE
MIXING BUT WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. AN ATTEMPT WAS
MADE TO REFLECT THIS PATTERN BY COOLING THE AREAS UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND WARMING THOSE WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BY A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND 60S TO AROUND
70 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUDS COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE SO SKIES WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
24/209 PM.
THE TAIL END OF STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MOSTLY TARGETING THE PAC NW
MAY HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY LEFT TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ROUGHLY 20%
OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS WITH THE FARTHEST EXTENT OF
ANY PRECIP BEING AROUND THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
DRY AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGLY POSITIVE-TILTED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
HITS THE WEST COAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING 80 IN THE
LA/VENTURA VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
AVIATION
24/2358Z.
AT 2231Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPRB WHICH
HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF V/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z TO 17Z SUNDAY.
LIGHT LLWS AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THRU SUN MORNING.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
24/906 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. HOWEVER, FOR PZZ676 THERE IS
ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS ON SUNDAY MORNING
AS EASTERLY WINDS PUSH OFF THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ZONE. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS OF PZZ645 COULD BEGIN TO SEE
10' SEAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN DRIVING THAT
IS LOW.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA,
THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF SCA-LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5'. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONE
375. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/BLACK
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...JLD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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