203
FXUS66 KLOX 270411
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
811 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
26/757 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK, PEAKING OVER THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS, AND A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
26/754 PM.
***UPDATE***
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WITH RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BAY
AREA UP TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER NW SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY). FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE OR
LESS ZONAL OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, WITH HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. TUESDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD RISE
BETWEEN 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY WITH UPPER
60S TO MID 70S EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUMP UP AS WELL, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 35 MPH IN THE OFFSHORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF VENTURA AND
LA COUNTIES.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR SOME DENSE
FOG IN THE SALINAS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
EARLY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A SLIGHT 5-15%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY ALL AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND EXTEND TO NORTHERN AREAS, IN
PARTICULAR THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. WEDNESAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE TYPICAL SANTA WIND CORRIDOR IN LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON THURSDAY, WITH MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
26/1238 PM.
RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRI INTO SAT. THERE
WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
SOME AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES
OVER NORMAL. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY.
A SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA AS WELL AS A 2 TO 5 DEGREE COOLING WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (FEB 3 AND 4).
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST FEBRUARY 9TH.
AVIATION
27/0000Z.
AT 2336Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, EXCEPT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF VFR CONDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF AN 8 KT
EAST WIND BETWEEN 05Z-08Z TUE, OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
26/733 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS, STRONGEST
ACROSS PZZ673, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, REACHING 10 TO 12
FEET ON THURSDAY. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE
DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND
SEAS MAY EXCEED 10 FEET AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. AREAS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE (N-NE) WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE VENTURA COUNTY
COAST TO MALIBU EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD
MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD/KL
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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