210
FXUS66 KLOX 271114
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
314 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/247 AM.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WHEN SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND MOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
27/247 AM.
A SMALL RIDGE WILL BRING 578 DAM HGTS TO THE AREA TODAY. AT THE
SFC THERE WILL BE 2 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE N AND
THE E. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ONLY GENERATE LOCAL NE CANYON WINDS
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT THROUGH THE RIDGE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND
WILL END UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS.
A LITTLE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. AT ONE TIME A DYING FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROF WAS FCST
TO BRING A CHC OF RAIN TO SLO COUNTY, BUT NOW ALL THE RAIN IS FCST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH EXCEPT
FOR THE INTERIOR OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY WHERE COOL AIR FROM THE SAN
JOAQUIN VLY WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BY 4 TO 6 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE NV IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF AND WILL
SET UP MODERATE (4 TO 6 MB) OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE N AND E. ADD IN
A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE USUAL SANTA ANA WIND LOCATIONS (ROUGHLY FROM THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY TO PT MUGU). SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING ALMOST ALL CST/VLY MAX TEMPS UP INTO
THE 70S OR 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
27/245 AM.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 AS A RIDGE POKES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SW, HGTS WILL RISE TO 584 DAM. 2 TO 4 MB OF
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY AND THE RIDGE WILL
INSURE THAT THE REST OF THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE RISING HGTS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE TO RAISE TEMPS 2 TO 3 DEGREES WHICH
WILL PUSH VLY AND SOME CSTL HIGHS INTO THE 80S.
PICTURE POSTCARD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OR SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AS TROFFING APPROACHES THE STATE.
HGTS WILL FALL TO 574 DAM (OR EVEN LOWER IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS
CORRECT). THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND MAY EVEN
TURN ONSHORE IN THE MORNING. THE FALL HGTS AND ONSHORE TRENDS WILL
LIKELY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
THE TROF WILL BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MAKE THE DAYS
PARTLY - OCNLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL 3 TO 6 DEGREES
SUNDAY AND 2 TO 4 ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON MONDAY. MONDAY'S HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CSTS AND
VLYS.
BOTH THE AI RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC SHOW THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FEBRUARY 9TH.
AVIATION
27/1113Z.
AT 1005Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, EXCEPT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF VFR CONDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WIND
COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
27/313 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY, WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS,
STRONGEST ACROSS PZZ673, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, REACHING
10 TO 12 FEET ON THURSDAY. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY
EXCEED 10 FEET AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST NEAR OR
ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. AREAS OF OFFSHORE (N-NE) WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO
MALIBU EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE LOCAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD/KL
SYNOPSIS...30
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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