004
FXUS66 KLOX 280014
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
414 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/100 PM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
27/121 PM.
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SOME SANTA ANA BREEZES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES (MOSTLY IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS) AS
WELL AS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. WINDS MAY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES BUT WILL DEFER ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT. THERE WERE SOME VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING 18
DEGREES AT SADDLEBACK BUTTE IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND 31 IN THE
OJAI VALLEY. WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME BUT IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH THE ONSHORE TREND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW MORNING, PERHAPS WITH SOME POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG. THEN A QUICK RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE LA/VENTURA VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY LOW TO MID
80S IN DOWNTOWN LA AND THE OXNARD/CAMARILLO PLAIN. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS THERE MAY BE SEVERAL BROKEN RECORDS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
27/143 PM.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, A RAPID COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT ONLY BY 3-6 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN EARLY FEBRUARY HAS THE SAME LOOK AND
FEEL AS THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM THE
GEFS, GEPS, ENS, AND THE AI MODELS ALL FAVOR A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN FEB. AND EVEN LOOKING BEYOND THAT
THROUGH THE 12TH OF FEB THERE IS REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE THAT
WOULD BRING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN.
AVIATION
28/0014Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS, EXCEPT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHC OF IFR OR LOWER CONDS 10-18Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
27/1114 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY, WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS,
STRONGEST ACROSS PZZ673, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, REACHING
10 TO 12 FEET ON THURSDAY. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS MAY EXCEED 10
FEET AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST NEAR OR ABOVE 10
FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND PROMPTING A BRIEF
SCA SOMETIME THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF OFFSHORE (N-NE)
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE
VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO MALIBU EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS HAVE A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE TO SEE SCA LEVEL
WIND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...MUNROE/PHILLIPS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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