821
FXUS66 KLOX 280347
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
747 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/745 PM.
SKIES WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN SHOULD CLEAR UP FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS
ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
27/732 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE.
WE'RE EXPECTING A CHILLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS MOST VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS SUCH AS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NORTHERN VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS, WHERE
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST IN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S COMMON. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM IN
THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT,
BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR FOG TO FORM (AND SEE VIA SATELLITE). OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SOME SANTA ANA BREEZES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES (MOSTLY IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS) AS
WELL AS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. WINDS MAY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES BUT WILL DEFER ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT. THERE WERE SOME VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING 18
DEGREES AT SADDLEBACK BUTTE IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND 31 IN THE
OJAI VALLEY. WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME BUT IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH THE ONSHORE TREND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW MORNING, PERHAPS WITH SOME POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG. THEN A QUICK RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE LA/VENTURA VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY LOW TO MID
80S IN DOWNTOWN LA AND THE OXNARD/CAMARILLO PLAIN. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS THERE MAY BE SEVERAL BROKEN RECORDS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
27/143 PM.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, A RAPID COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT ONLY BY 3-6 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN EARLY FEBRUARY HAS THE SAME LOOK AND
FEEL AS THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM THE
GEFS, GEPS, ENS, AND THE AI MODELS ALL FAVOR A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN FEB. AND EVEN LOOKING BEYOND THAT
THROUGH THE 12TH OF FEB THERE IS REALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE THAT
WOULD BRING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN.
AVIATION
28/0014Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS, EXCEPT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHC OF IFR OR LOWER CONDS 10-18Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
27/659 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS, STRONGEST
ACROSS PZZ673, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, REACHING 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THURSDAY. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE
DECREASING FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS MAY EXCEED 10
FEET AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FEET
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEF SCA LEVEL GUSTS SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CHANNEL ISLANDS
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF SANTA ANA (N-NE) WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE VENTURA COUNTY
COAST TO MALIBU EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD
MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
HAVE A 30-50% CHANCE TO SEE SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/BL
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...MUNROE/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...BL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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