200
FXUS66 KLOX 281802
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
28/949 AM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. LOCALLY
BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
28/1001 AM.
***UPDATE***
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, BUT WEAKER DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE TROUGH IS TAPPING
INTO A LARGE BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO THAT
WILL DRAG THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BUT THERE
SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A BIG WARMUP WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW JUMPS BACK UP TO AT LEAST 5MB. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LA/VENTURA
COAST/VALLEY AREAS AND 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SB. SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A LITTLE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME (ALTHOUGH HGTS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH).
THE MAIN AFFECT OF THE TROF WILL BE TO DRAG A HUGE SHEET OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVERHEAD MAKING IT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN YDY. THERE WILL BE LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING ACROSS MOST VLY AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE LESS
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS WELL AS AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND THIS
WILL COOL THE COASTS SOME.
RIDGING NOSES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND HGTS
WILL RISE TO 580 DAM. AT THE SAME TIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB FROM BOTH THE N AND E. THIS WILL LIKELY
GENERATE GUSTS THE MEET LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA (35 TO 45 MPH)
THROUGH THE SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE SANTA LUCIAS IN
SLO COUNTY. 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP INTO
THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE CSTS/VLYS.
THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 10 TO 12 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY OVER SRN
CA AND HGTS WILL RISE TO 584 DAM. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER, WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MORNING CANYON WINDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIER THAN
NORMAL HGTS (10 DAM OVER NORMAL), SUNSHINE, AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALL COMBINE TO MAKE THIS THE WARMEST DAY. 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF
WARMING WILL PUSH MOST MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
THIS WARM UP WILL LIKELY BREAK A FEW RECORDS.
IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE 12 TO 15 DEGREES OVER NORMAL AND
A FEW RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
28/254 AM.
TROFFING AND NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO SOME OF THE COASTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES, BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (CENTRAL COAST ONLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES).
MORE COOLING IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY, BUT NEXT WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AND KICK OFF ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
LOOKING FORWARD THERE STILL IS NO SIGNAL FOR ANY RAIN ALL THROUGH
FEBRUARY 9TH AND LIKELY BEYOND.
AVIATION
28/1752Z.
AROUND 17Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 800 FT WITH A TEMP OF 17 DEG C.
HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT KPRB AFTER 12Z TONIGHT.
KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS.
KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
28/831 AM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS RELATIVE TO FORECAST
FOR SEAS.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE
IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY (50-70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
INCREASING TO AN IMMINENT (80-100 PERCENT) CHANCE THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP A LIKELY (60-80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVELS
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY, REACHING 10 TO 12 FEET ON THURSDAY.
SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING FOR
THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WIND AND SEAS WILL VERY
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN AREAS
OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS OFF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO MALIBU EACH MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY (50 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FROM AROUND POINT MUGU SOUTH AND EAST TO
PACIFIC PALISADES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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