336
FXUS66 KLOX 290353
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
753 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
28/111 PM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. LOCALLY
BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
28/752 PM.
***UPDATE***
OVERALL, A VERY BENIGN EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE. WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE AS WELL AS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. IN THESE AREAS,
LOW END ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT. FOR OTHER SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE AREAS, ANY ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES COULD HAVE
SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A TYPICAL LA NINA PATTERN IS IN FULL EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH SEMI-PERMINENT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC DEFLECTING STORMS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
WARM AIR MASS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY
ABOVE DAILY RECORDS. LOCAL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS, WITH A
ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF REACHING 90 ON THE WARMEST DAYS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VERY WARM FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORDS THERE AS
WELL. OVERALL, HIGHS WILL BE 13-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TODAY ACROSS MAINLY
THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL REGIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL
AS THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THERE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT, BUT AT BEST THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW END WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE SAME AREAS. MAY NEED ANOTHER ONE FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
28/211 PM.
OVERALL THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
BUT WITH A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND GRADIENTS TURN LIGHTLY ONSHORE.
BUT EVEN DURING THIS PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST
3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. SOME SOLUTIONS SWING THE LOW
BACK TOWARDS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD FORCE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, BUT MORE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A
FARTHER EAST TRAJECTORY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS
LOCALLY. EITHER WAY, NO CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
29/0128Z.
AT 0031Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP
AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMP OF 19 DEG C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT KPRB DUE TO
A 20% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. LGT-MDT
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER AND AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
28/1227 PM.
GENERALLY MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS, THERE IS A
HIGH- TO- LIKELY (50-70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDS SHOULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN INNER AND OUTER WATERS DURING THE
PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT, CONDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS, EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO SCA LEVELS BY
LATER SUN OR SUN NIGHT.STDAFDLOX
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WIND AND SEAS WILL VERY
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN AREAS
OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO MALIBU
EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDS SHOULD THEN
BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 342-375-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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