628
FXUS66 KLOX 291805
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1005 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
29/937 AM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TODAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S
AND 80S. LOCALLY BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
29/946 AM.
***UPDATE***
AS EXPECTED, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY OFFSHORE,
AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS IN SLO
COUNTY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE
TODAY AND THROUGH THE AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE CHART SHOWS
TEMPS UP 10-20 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ACROSS
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND JUST SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. THE PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
SOME DAILY RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING TO ABOUT 6MB FROM BOTH THE N AND
HE E. THIS WILL KICK OFF A LOW END SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. IT WILL
NOT REACH MODERATE LEVELS BECAUSE THERE IS ONLY A LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND NO COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUST MOSTLY FROM 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA TO
WESTERN SANTA MONICA MTNS WIND CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE SANTA LUCIA
MTNS IN SLO COUNTY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH
ACROSS EXPOSED RIDGETOPS. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND HGTS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 580 DAM. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND THE DOWNSLOPING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6 LOCALLY 8 DEGREES. THIS
WARMING WILL BRING THE CSTS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THE
VLYS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY. HGTS WILL PEAK AT 584 DAM. THERE
WILL BE A MB OR TWO LESS OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
WIND ADVISORIES BUT STILL ENOUGH TO DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING RESULTING IN MOST CST/VLY
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH A 25 PERCENT CHC OF THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS REACHING 90. RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH
TODAY AND SATURDAY, BUT FRIDAY'S RECORDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
(DOWNTOWN LA = 83 IN 1992, LONG BEACH = 85 IN 2003, BURBANK = 85
IN 2003, WOODLAND HILLS = 87 IN 1971, CAMARILLO = 85 IN 1953) AND
MULTIPLE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE ON SATURDAY IN EITHER THE
SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS OR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL BE A PICTURE
POSTCARD DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 18 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
29/235 AM.
SOME CHANGES ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. A TROF WILL MOTOR THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHILE
DROPPING HGTS OVER SRN CA TO 574 DAM. THERE WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE
FLOW BUT IT WILL ONLY BE HALF A STRONG AS IT WAS ON SATURDAY. THE
REDUCTION IN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER SEA BREEZE.
SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COVER THE CENTRAL COAST IN
THE MORNING. ALL OF THESE ITEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING 4 TO 8
LOCALLY 10 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS COOLING
MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ACTUAL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF THE CSTS AND SOME OF THE LOWER VLYS.
THE COOLER AIR AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK 2 TO 4
LOCALLY 6 DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS AND MOST CSTS AND VLYS WILL
END UP WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S (SOME UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES)
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF READINGS IN THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE AI-LONG RANGE MDLS THE NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNAL FOR
RAIN WILL BE ON THE 11TH OF FEB.
AVIATION
29/1804Z.
AROUND 1728Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX. THERE WAS
A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION UP TO AROUND 1500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS, EXCEPT FOR A 30% CHANCE FOR VLIFR
CONDS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AS NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MDT LLWS POSSIBLE AT KSBP, KSMX, KVNY, AND KBUR, AND MDT
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
AN EAST WIND COMPONENT TO REACH 8 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS. LGT TO MDT LLWS AND
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30% CHANCE FOR BRIEF
EAST-NORTHEAST TO SURFACE AT KBUR THROUGH 02Z, THEN AGAIN AFTER
15Z.
MARINE
29/941 AM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE
IS A LIKELY (60-80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING,
DECREASING TO A HIGH TO LIKELY (40-60 PERCENT) CHANCE THEREAFTER
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE SCA CONTINUING AFTER THIS MORNING,
POTENTIALLY REACHING 9 TO 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH A
MODERATE TO HIGH (30-50 PERCENT) CHANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, AREAS OF SCA LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO MALIBU EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A LIKELY (60-80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FROM AROUND POINT MUGU SOUTH AND EAST TO PACIFIC PALISADES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE AT OR BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 88-369-374. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 342-375-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 655-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...HALL/BL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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