576
FXUS66 KLOX 300343
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
743 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
29/140 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
29/743 PM.
***UPDATE***
OVERALL, A VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE IN THE USUAL NORTHEAST WIND-PRONE AREAS.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, ONLY ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
WINDS. OVERNIGHT, WILL EXPECT THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE,
BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY, BUT WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT
MAKE THAT DETERMINATION. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS GREAT HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.
SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
AS EXPECTED, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY OFFSHORE,
AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS IN SLO
COUNTY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE
TODAY AND THROUGH THE AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE CHART SHOWS
TEMPS UP 10-20 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ACROSS
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND JUST SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. THE PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
SOME DAILY RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
29/229 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY WITH AGAIN RAPIDLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 90, AS A
585DAM HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF SOMEWHERE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. STILL NOT SEEING A TON OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOW END WIND
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED AT TIMES, MAINLY AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN ANY TIME SOON ARE BLEAK. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL PEGGING AROUND THE 9TH OR 10TH OF FEB FOR OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY RAIN, BUT MOST OF THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE WELL UNDER A
HALF INCH.
AVIATION
30/0343Z.
AT 0330Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR MOST
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KPRB WHERE
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 12Z-17Z
TIME FRAME.
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE LLWS AND TURBULENCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
29/729 PM.
A COMBINATION OF SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND OCCASIONAL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CREATE PERIODS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, BEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION, INCLUDING NEARSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS RETURNING LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF SCA WIND GUSTS TO IMPACT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT ANY SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED NEAR
CAYUCOS AND MORRO BAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN NEXT
WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, NEARSHORE AREAS FROM
VENTURA THROUGH MALIBU WILL SEE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH
SATURDAY, STRONGEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE RELATIVE LULLS OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A 50%
CHANCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING ANACAPA AND SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS BUT
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT WINDS GREATER THAN 10-15 KNOTS REACH AVALON
OR TWO HARBORS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE, WITH SANTA ANA WINDS
POSSIBLY RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...BL/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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