435
FXUS66 KLOX 302247
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
247 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
30/156 PM.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. COOLING WITH DENSE
FOG WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK AROUND MONDAY, WITH WARMING AGAIN
STARTING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
30/246 PM.
THE CURRENT JANUARY WARM AND DRY SPELL IS A RESULT OF RIDGING ALOFT
AND OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS TODAY WERE LARGELY IN
THE 80S, WHICH IS APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO FAR
TODAY WE ARE CLOSE TO TYING CALENDER DAY RECORDS AT SOME SITES,
INCLUDING LAX, LONG BEACH, AND CAMARILLO AIRPORT. LITTLE CHANGES
TO THE SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE DAILY
RECORDS ARE MUCH HIGHER FOR THE 31ST AND ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
BROKEN/TIED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
STARTING LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
REFORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LOCAL AREAS OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN (ALTHOUGH WEAKER) ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS SOME
FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY AREAS ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
MORNING, AND THE WINDS MAY BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS AND
CREATE SOME ROADWAY HAZARDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BEFORE THE SHIFT TO ONSHORE
FLOW BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
30/216 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL RESUME DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FOR THIS NEXT SANTA ANA EVENT COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
WIND EVENT, BUT ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE MODERATE STRENGTH AND
GENERALLY WIND ADVISORY LEVEL OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST IN THE TYPICAL WINDY CORRIDOR OR LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY,
WITH MOST HIGHS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WIDESPREAD, AND SOME CALENDER DAY RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS HEAT SPELL, WITH FEW ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MEMBERS SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WEATHER
PATTERN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES BY FRIDAY, BUT SOME
AMOUNT OF COOLING IS FAVORED.
THERE REMAINS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY FEBRUARY
6TH. AFTER THAT, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE THERE IS
AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN (MOST LIKELY LIGHT)
DURING THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 9TH. GIVEN THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE RAINY SEASON FOR SOCAL, THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH GENERAL
CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION
30/1815Z.
AT 1729Z, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION UP TO AROUND 1000
FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CURRENT FORCEAST, EXCEPT FOR A
20% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB FROM 13Z-17Z FRI. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MODERATE LLWS ACROSS LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES AFTER 03Z
SAT, AND GUSTS SPEEDS MAY BE OFF BY 5 KT DURING PEAK WINDS AT
KCMA, KOXR, AND KVNY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10% CHANCE OF THE EAST WIND COMPONENT EXCEEDING 6 KT FROM 08-17Z
SAT.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MODERATE LLWS AFTER 03Z SAT.
MARINE
30/148 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, AREAS OF SCA LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO MALIBU LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND PACIFIC PALISADES. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE AT OR BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. A RETURN OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 88-374-375-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...HALL/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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