959
FXUS66 KLOX 130527
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
927 PM PST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
12/927 PM.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH FLOODING AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THUNDERSTORMS,
STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
12/901 PM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERED TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WERE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE 60S WITH
COOLER 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT, BUT THERE'S AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35
MPH RANGE MOSTLY AFFECTING HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT COULD IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THINGS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PEAK IN
THE MORNING HOURS. LAX-DAG AROUND -1 MB AND LAX BFL NEAR -4 MB.
ALONG WITH NO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. RADIATION FG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. WEAK
RIDGING WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST (3-6F) OF WARMING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW WITH COAST/VALLEY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND 50S TO 60S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY COOLING COAST/VALLEY LOCATIONS 3-6F WITH SLIGHTLY WARMING
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AND CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO APPROACH TOWARDS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT MORE ON
SUNDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
12/219 PM.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS THAT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
THREE STORM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT SET IN STONE, IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD ARRIVE TO THE CENTRAL COAST SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ON MONDAY. DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT WITH TIME.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND RAIN RATES. ONE CAVEAT THAT COULD DAMPEN HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS A BIT WOULD BE THE STORM'S FAST MOTION. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION COMPARED TO
THE LAST STORM SYSTEM. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND
1" ON MONDAY WITH 10% OF ENSEMBLES INDICATING CLOSER TO 1.2". THIS
WOULD BE OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE. STILL WITH THE SAME GENERAL
THOUGHTS OF 1-2" FOR COAST/VALLEY AND 2X THAT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE THE RANGE WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNTS.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERE IS A HANDFUL OF MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND ICON THAT ARE
LESS FAVORABLE SYNOPTICALLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS DISCONTINUITY IN GUIDANCE BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY'S STORM - LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW
ON THURSDAY BUT UNCERTAIN IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 6000 FT FOR THE FIRST STORM AND WILL
DECREASE TO 3000-3500 FT BY WED. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED
OUT WITH TIME. ECMWF 500MB TEMPS DROP TO -33 C OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 700-500MB (7-8 C) LAPSE RATES
INDICATING FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. DESPITE LESS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMPARED TO MONDAY, THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD, CALIFORNIA, AS
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
13/0253Z.
AT 0017Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND NO INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPRB, WHERE THERE IS A
20-40% CHANCE FOR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
OVER THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT
AT KSBA THROUGH 16Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR VV002 AND 1/2SM CONDS
12Z-18Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 08Z TO 18Z, BUT EAST
WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 KT.
KBUR...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
IN GROUND FOG THROUGH 16Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
12/730 PM.
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS, RAIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT, THUS IT IS ENCOURAGED TO CONSIDER ALTERING PLANS
FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN A RELATIVE LULL IS FORECAST DURING
MOST OF SATURDAY. FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CATALINA EDDY IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP
AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
REACH THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: ALL EYES SHIFT TO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRETY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BECOMING LARGE AND
HAZARDOUS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS, INCLUDING NEARSHORE.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE IN THE WEEK.
BEACHES
12/725 PM.
SURF AND SWELL WILL BUILD AGAIN AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT VENTURA COUNTY
BEACHES.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE
LATEST SWELL MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 50-70
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HIGH SURF BETWEEN MONDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COMBINATION OF SW AND W-NW SWELLS AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. SETS ABOVE 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
BEACHES, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCES FOR W-NW FACING SHORES.
THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DAMAGING SETS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST FOR NW FACING
SHORES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL WITH STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL
FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS DURING TIMES
OF THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES EACH EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR SURF AND
SWELL AND LOCALLY WIND-DRIVEN SWELL AFFECT THE BEACHES AND
COASTLINE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/BLACK
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...BL/CC
BEACHES...HALL/BL/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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