160
FXUS66 KLOX 132216
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
216 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPDATED MARINE AND BEACHES SECTION
SYNOPSIS
13/118 AM.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH FLOODING AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THUNDERSTORMS,
STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
13/854 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE FORECAST IS WELL ON-TRACK, AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINE TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA VALLEYS
AND 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY BUT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
NEXT STORM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION TODAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STORM
REMAINS QUITE A WAYS OUT, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR AS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
13/347 AM.
THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS COMING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EACH WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH A 160KT JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS LA COUNTY, PRECIPITABLE WATERS NOW CLOSE TO 1.25", AND A
CLASSIC COLD FRONT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SLAMMING INTO THE STATE,
THIS FIRST SYSTEM HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERATING THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OR PRECIPITATION OVERALL. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MONDAY AND 2-5" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WE'RE STILL OUTSIDE THE TIME FRAME FOR THE HIGHER RES
MODELS BUT BASED ON THE NAM SHOWING 50-60 KT AT 850MB OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST CREATING A HUGE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT IT LOOKS LIKELY
THAT HOURLY RAIN RATES WILL REACH AT LEAST 0.75"/HOUR IN THE
TRANSVERSE RANGE BETWEEN SANTA BARBARA AND LA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS ONE INCH PER HOUR. BECAUSE OF THIS, MONDAY HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS AND OVERALL
HYDROLOGIC HAZARDS. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET MONDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY ABOVE THAT.
THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN RAIN AMOUNTS AND
INTENSITIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT, BUT IT'S
ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE FEATURES 4 OR MORE DAYS OUT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BUT RAIN RATES SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING ALOFT LEADING TO SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE LOOK OF A VERY WACKY WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST 3000
FEET, AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 2500 FEET AT TIMES CREATING
SIGNIFICANT DRIVING HAZARDS ON MOUNTAIN ROADS, INCLUDING
INTERSTATE 5, WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE DELAYS OR CLOSURES AT TIMES.
PW'S DROP BY 50%, BUT THIS SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN AND
SNOW PRODUCER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
VALLEYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM AS LITTLE AS A
HALF INCH IN SOME AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 1-3" IN OTHERS.
A COLD DAY ON THURSDAY BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY
WEATHER.
AVIATION
13/1739Z.
AT 1717Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS
A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB FROM 08Z TO 16Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATELY STRENGTH CATALINA EDDY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVING A 60% CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING 7-8 KTS
FROM 14/09Z TO AT LEAST 14/18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
13/200 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SEAS NEAR 10 FT.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS
GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THE CATALINA EDDY WILL
SPIN UP OVERNIGHT WITH A 30% CHANCE OF BORDERLINE SCA LEVEL SE
WIND GUSTS MID-MORNING TOMORROW. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
(LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT) *TIMING WILL BE REFINED LATER*
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE
INCLUDE: GALE FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND WATERSPOUTS.
BEACHES
13/215 PM.
SURF AND SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE BEACHES
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 9
TO 13 FEET.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE
LATEST SWELL MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD HIGH SURF BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COMBINATION
OF SW AND W-NW SWELLS AFFECT THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SETS ABOVE 10
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BEACHES, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCES FOR W-NW FACING SHORES. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF
DAMAGING SETS (NEAR 20 FT) DEVELOPING BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST FOR NW FACING SHORES ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL WITH STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL
FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT ALONG WITH
WIND-DRIVEN FACTORS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/COHEN
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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