328
FXUS66 KLOX 140149
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
549 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
13/548 PM.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THEN, A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL, ALONG WITH FLOODING AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THUNDERSTORMS,
STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
13/310 PM.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION, STARTING MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A LONGWAVE, HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST VICINITY, AND EASTWARD.
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY, AS NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY SINCE THE 00Z RUNS OVERNIGHT.
A FAST-MOVING, LEAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE, 850MB, AND 500MB LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC LOCATIONS COMPARED TO PAST SEVERE-WEATHER EVENTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, THE POSITION OF THE JET STREAM
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND THE FRONT
IS ALSO ARRIVING DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL AID TO ENHANCE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ALOFT, THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
250MB WINDS PEAK 130-140 KT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED SUCH THAT
THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THE 850
MB JET RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY WITH
VALUES UP TO 60 KTS ACCORDING TO THE 12-KM NAM ACROSS THE REGION.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, HIGHEST
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT 7-8 C/KM AND 6-7 C/KM AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES.
IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS, A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (SQUALL LINE) IS LIKELY TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AS THE STORM RAMPS UP, AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR PROFILES MAY
BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE WEAKLY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT, AIDED BY MOMENTUM TRANSFER AMID THE STRONG BACKGROUND
FLOW. HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY BE MORE STRAIGHTLINE ACROSS SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES, HOWEVER AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES, CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL
DEEPEN TO ROUGHLY 2-3 KM. THERE IS THE CONCERN FOR WATERSPOUTS TO
MOVE ONSHORE, AND/OR ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP
INLAND FROM THE COAST DUE TO FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE -- ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LA BASIN WHERE THE UNIQUE TERRAIN FEATURES CAN ENHANCE
THE LOW-LEVEL SPIN. AS A RESULT, A COUPLE OF WEAK, BRIEF
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
BE A HAZARD. FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE LIKELY BE REFINED AS
SUBSEQUENT HIGH-RESOLUTON MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES AVAILABLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS, THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSE
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES. THROUGH LATE MONDAY, TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY ONLY REACH ONE TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES, THOUGH MUCH OF
THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE,
WITHIN 15-30-MINUTE INTERVALS. CORRESPONDINGLY, WIDESPREAD MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING IMPACTS COULD MATERIALIZE, ALONG WITH ROCK
AND MUD SLIDES, AS WELL AS MINOR BURN-SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS. THE ONSET
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6 KFT IS ANTICIPATED ON
MONDAY, AS WELL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPACTS CONTINUES
INCREASING, THERE ARE STILL SOME ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY RELATED
TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE LEAD-WAVE PASSAGE, AS WELL AS PHASING
OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THESE
INTERACTIONS, AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE (AROUND 30%) THAT A NOTABLY
WEAKER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
13/310 PM.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE LARGE, UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED BY MULTIPLE
IMPULSES OF COMPACT VORTICITY AND ACCOMPANYING SPEED MAXIMA
PIVOTING THROUGH THE WESTERN RIM OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING. IT
APPEARS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE BENEATH THE TRAJECTORY OF
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. EACH IMPULSE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BOOST
PRECIPITATION RATES AND WINDS WITHIN A RATHER LONG DURATION OF ON-
AND-OFF SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION
EXISTS AMONGST MODELS CONCERNING THESE IMPULSES, THOUGH NEXT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH-WEDNESDAY IS A MORE-LIKELY PERIOD OF
STRONGER JET ENERGY PASSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA, PROVIDING MORE
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK IN MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S -- BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL READINGS -- WHILE SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL IN
RESPONSE TO COLD ADVECTION WITH EACH PASSING IMPULSE. COLD-WEATHER
IMPACTS COULD BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE REMAINS
SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY FROM MODEL TO MODEL, THOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF A SEVERAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION).
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF EACH IMPULSE FOLLOWING THE MONDAY,
MORE- AVORABLE-FOR-FLOODING EVENT MAY TEND TO MITIGATE SUBSEQUENT
FLOODING IMPACTS. HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS COULD OFFSET THE SHORT-DURATION PRECIPITATION CHARACTER
TO MAINTAIN, OR EVEN BOOST, FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK,
AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS GROWS QUICKLY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK.
AND THEN REGARDING STORM-TOTAL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6 KFT COULD RECEIVE UPWARDS OF MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW. AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER, LIGHTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS -- THOUGH STILL
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- COULD IMPACT ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 3 OR
4 KFT INCLUDING THE GRAPEVINE OF THE INTERSTATE-5 CORRIDOR, IF
ENHANCED MOSITURE CAN ADEQUATELY PHASE WITH COOLING ALOFT. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON NUMEROUS MESOSCALE FACTORS FOR WHICH UNCERTAINTY IS
SIGNIFICANT.
WHILE A DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
EMBEDDED IMPULSES TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
14/0147Z.
AT 0017Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION IS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17
DEGREES C.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB FROM 08Z TO 16Z. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FORMING AT THE COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 12Z TO
18Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
FORMING LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A CATALINA EDDY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVING A 40% CHANCE OF EASTERLY WINDS
REACHING 6-8 KTS FROM 14/06Z TO 14/18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
13/200 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SEAS NEAR 10 FT.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS
GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THE CATALINA EDDY WILL
SPIN UP OVERNIGHT WITH A 30% CHANCE OF BORDERLINE SCA LEVEL SE
WIND GUSTS MID-MORNING TOMORROW. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
(LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT) *TIMING WILL BE REFINED LATER*
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE
INCLUDE: GALE FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND WATERSPOUTS.
BEACHES
13/215 PM.
SURF AND SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE BEACHES
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 9
TO 13 FEET.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE
LATEST SWELL MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD HIGH SURF BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COMBINATION
OF SW AND W-NW SWELLS AFFECT THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SETS ABOVE 10
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BEACHES, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCES FOR W-NW FACING SHORES. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF
DAMAGING SETS (NEAR 20 FT) DEVELOPING BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST FOR NW FACING SHORES ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL WITH STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL
FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT ALONG WITH
WIND-DRIVEN FACTORS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...COHEN/BLACK
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...COHEN/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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