591
FXUS66 KLOX 141114
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
314 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/313 AM.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. THEN, A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH
FLOODING AND LOW ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW, THUNDERSTORMS, STRONG
WINDS, AS WELL AS MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
14/313 AM.
YESTERDAY'S RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY. HGTS WILL
BE NEAR 572 DAM FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY YDY'S
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VANISH WITH NEUTRAL FLOW THIS MORNING AND BOUT
4 MB OF ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK EDDY HAS
SPUN UP AS WELL AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BEACHES IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 60S AND THE
VALUES WILL BE NEAR SEASON NORMS.
ON SUNDAY A COLD 539 DAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN CA
COAST. MOIST SW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER SRN CA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AS
WELL. SO MANY CLOUDS THAT THE CHARACTER OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SBA SOUTH COAST TO WARRANT A CHC (30 TO 40 PERCENT)
OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HI REZ MDLS IT SEEMS THAT
THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY,
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH (THE EXTREME NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY
MAY SEE MORE). THE CLOUDS, FALLING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALL COMBINE TO LOWER MAX BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. THE LOW WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST. A PLUME OF NEAR 1 INCH PWATS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE CENTRAL COAST WITHIN THE SW FLOW. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SBA SOUTH COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
NOT MAKE THAT MUCH SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OVERNIGHT AND ONLY 50
PERCENT CHC OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER VTA COUNTY AND JUST A 35
PERCENT CHC OVER LA COUNTY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ABOUT A THIRD TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE CENTRAL COAST WITH UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. IF RAIN FALLS FURTHER
SOUTH IT WILL BE NO MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH AND FOR EASTERN VTA
COUNTY AND LA COUNTY UNDER A TENTH.
THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS STORM. THIS STORM
WILL BE FUELED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE (A WIDE SWATH OF 1 INCH PWATS
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA), POWERFUL JET DYNAMICS (150 MPH SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT WINDS AT 300 MB AND 100 MPH WINDS AT 500 MB) AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING (850 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES PEAKING AT NEAR -60
DPA/S).
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE INTO A VERY ACTIVE AND DYNAMIC
FRONT AROUND PT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM MORNING TO THE EARLY EVENING. IT
WILL NOT BE AS FAST MOVING AS WAS LAST WEEKS FRONT SINCE THE JET
IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT RATHER THAN PERPENDICULAR TO IT.
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE VERY CONVECTIVE AND THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN WEAK TORNADOES.
RAINFALL RATES RIGHT IN FRONT OF AND IN THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE
QUITE INTENSE. IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMICS THERE WILL BE VERY
STRONG (30 TO 40 MPH) SOUTH WINDS WHICH WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES. 1+ INCH
PER HOURS WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE EITHER WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT
COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW OR UNDER ANY TSTM/CONVECTIVE CELL.
THESE HIGH RATES WILL LIKELY GENERATE WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING, ROCK AND MUD SLIDES, AS WELL AS BURN-SCAR
DEBRIS FLOWS. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 400AM MONDAY TO 1000PM MONDAY
EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CSTS/VLYS AND 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SLOPES. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 3 OR 4 HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER RAINFALL WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WELL AS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT BUT WILL FALL TO NEAR
5000 FT DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT
IS LIKELY AND WINTER STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE COORDINATED
AND ISSUED LATER TODAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CST AND VLYS
AND WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL. HIGH
WIND WATCHES WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERED TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS IN
MANY OF THE MTN AREAS WILL BE COVERED BY WINTER STORM PRODUCTS.
SECONDARY IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 4500 FT.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
14/313 AM.
MOIST FLOW AND MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING ON TUESDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIOD AS WELL. A
BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AND INTENSIFY THERE.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD TO A HALF INCH
WITH LOCAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME MTN AREAS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FT.
A NEW COLDER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PWATS
WILL BE HALF AS MUCH A MONDAY'S STORM. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
AND THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN TO THE CSTS/VLYS AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN
THE MTNS. SNOW MAY BE THE BIGGEST TALKING POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM
SNOW LEVEL MAY DROP TO 3500 FT AND EVEN LOWER UNDER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS. SNOW AT THESE LEVELS WOULD DEFINITELY AFFECT ALL THE
MAJOR PASSES. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS, BUT AT THIS TIME NO STORMS OF CONSEQUENCE
ARE FORECAST.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD THE EC-AI DOES SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME IN TUE-THU FEB 24-26 TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
14/1051Z.
AT 1030Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
13 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TAFS, BUT ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS. TIMING OF DISSIPATION
OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS).
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 16Z
FORECAST. TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 3
HOURS OF CURRENT 04Z FORECAST. AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OF 6-7
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, TIMING OF RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.
MARINE
14/251 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL AS THE SEAS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PZZ670. SCA LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS
WITH A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
(LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT) *TIMING WILL BE REFINED LATER*
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE
INCLUDE: GALE FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND WATERSPOUTS.
BEACHES
13/739 PM.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 9 TO 13
FEET.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE
LATEST SWELL MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD HIGH SURF BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COMBINATION
OF SW AND W-NW SWELLS AFFECT THE SW CALIFORNIA WATERS. SETS ABOVE
10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BEACHES, BUT THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCES FOR W-NW FACING SHORES. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF DAMAGING SETS (NEAR 20 FT) DEVELOPING BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOWS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE REMAIN
CONSISTENT ALONG WITH WIND-DRIVEN FACTORS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...COHEN/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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