996
FXUS66 KLOX 151735
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/913 AM.
IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF
LOS ANGELES. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
BURN-SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS, FLASH FLOODING WITH ROCK AND MUD SLIDES,
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND HIGH SURF WITH COASTAL
FLOODING. COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RAIN WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
15/935 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH TO SANTA BARBARA AND CAN'T
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN VENTURA COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE
PRIMARY FOCUS IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOW THAT WE'RE WELL
INSIDE THE HI RES WINDOW, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A POWERFUL
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY, FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST TO SANTA
BARBARA MONDAY MORNING, THEN ADVANCING EAST INTO VENTURA COUNTY
AROUND LUNCH TIME, AND SHORTLY AFTER THAT IN LA COUNTY. DURING
THOSE PERIODS EXPECT TO SEE HOURLY RAIN RATES BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS WELL. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE 1-2.5"
FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND 2.5-5" FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. VERY STRONG
WINDS AS WELL WITH THE FRONT.
BY MONDAY EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A 541 DAM UPPER LOW IS 100 MILES WEST OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. STRONG
SW FLOW UNDER THIS LOW COVERS SRN CA. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDY
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LIFT TO CREATE
SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY END UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
THE STORM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
SERIOUS DYNAMICS HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST. THERE WILL ONLY BE A
CHANCE (30-40 PERCENT) OF RAIN ACROSS OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES
THROUGH 10PM. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SLO AND SBA COUNTIES IN THE
LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOWARDS DAWN A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHC OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN VTA COUNTY WITH MUCH
LESSER CHC ACROSS LA AND EASTERN VTA COUNTIES. ITS LIKELY THAT
ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ AND MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NW SLO COUNTY WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT.
ALL EYES ON MONDAY AS THE STAGE IS SET FOR A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
IT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST JUST AFTER DAWN, EASTERN SBA
COUNTY AND WESTERN VTA COUNTY LATE IN THE MORNING, EASTERN VTA
COUNTY AND WESTERN LA COUNTY A LITTLE AFTER NOON FINALLY ARRIVING
OVER THE REST OF LA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
EXIT THE COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE A POWERFUL FRONT FUELED BY NEAR 1 INCH PWATS AND VERY
STRONG JET ENERGY (100MPH AT 500 MB AND 155 MPH AT 300 MB). THERE
WILL BE A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THEN A 15 TO 30 MINUTE BURST OF EXTREMELY ACTIVE
WEATHER WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT DURING THE DAY MONDAY:
RAINFALL: 1 TO 2.5 INCHES CSTS/VLYS, 2.5 TO 5 INCHES COASTAL
SLOPES FOOTHILLS AND MTNS AND AROUND AN INCH FAR INLAND AREAS.
RAINFALL RATES: .5 INCH PER HOUR RATES COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT WITH 1+ INCH PER HOUR RATES VERY POSSIBLE UNDER CONVECTIVE
CELLS, TSTMS, SOUTH FACING UPSLOPE AREAS (ESP THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND THE THE SANTA MONICAS) AND RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS: A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CSTS/VLYS AND LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS. 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS.
TSTMS/CONVECTION: CONVECTION BOTH WITH AND WITHOUT LIGHTNING IS
LIKELY AHEAD AND ESP WITH THE FRONT. GIVEN THE INFLOW OF STRONG
JET ENERGY ANY CONVECTIVE CELL THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
INTENSE RAIN RATES AND 65+ MPH DOWNBURST WINDS.
ROTATING STORMS: ALL MDLS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF TURNING
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS AND ALONG WITH THE
NATURAL TURNING EFFECTS OF THE COASTAL LAYOUT WILL CREATE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WATERSPOUTS, WATERSPOUTS MOVING ONSHORE
AS TORNADOES AND ACTUAL WEAK TORNADOES FORMING OVER THE LAND.
WINTER WEATHER: SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 6000 FT BUT WILL
FALL TO 5000 FT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES BETWEEN 4500 TO 6000 FEET ELEVATION ARE VERY POSSIBLE
WITH 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE 6000 FEET ELEVATION POSSIBLE.
HAZARDS: THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF BLOWING
TREES OVER. THE HEAVY RAINS ESP UNDER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD
CREATE DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND BELOW THE RECENT BURN SCARS. THERE IS A
50 PERCENT CHC OF MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE. OUTSIDE OF THE BURN SCARS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF ROADWAY FLOODING AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM FLOODING. MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING IS VERY UNLIKELY. TRAVELING ABOVE THE 5500
ELEVATION LINE IN THE MTN WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS AND NEAR
IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN STRONG WINDS, HEAVY
SNOW, BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES.
THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS RELATE TO SPECIFIC HAZARDS LIKELY ON
MONDAY:
LAXNPWLOX - CONTAINS ALL INFORMATIONS ABOUT THE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS.
LAXWSWLOX - CONTAINS ALL INFORMATION ABOUT THE DANGEROUS WINTER
WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LAXFFALOX - CONTAINS ALL INFORMATION ABOUT THE FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOW POTENTIAL
A 2ND VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
THE RAINFALL WILL NOT BE THAT INTENSE. LOOK FOR A QUARTER INCH TO
A HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO FALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
TO AN INCH IN THE MTNS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MTNS OF
VTA COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE SNOW IN THE
MTNS. SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4700 FT AND ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS IT
WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MTN
SHOWERS. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON STORM NUMBER 2 WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIKELY. IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CSTS AND VLYS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
15/301 AM.
STORM #2 WILL ARRIVE IN FULL FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY .5 TO .6
INCHES OF PWAT TO WORK WITH. THE SYSTEM'S FLOW IS MUCH MORE
WESTERLY RATHER THAN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS WILL MAKE IT MOVE BY
MUCH QUICKER AND ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH IT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH 1.5 TO 2 TIMES THOSE AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS. THE
BIG DEAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLD AIR AND LOW SNOW
LEVELS. SNOW LEVEL MAY DROP TO NEAR 3000 FT WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE
MAJOR MTN HIGHWAY PASSES. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO IT WHICH COULD LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS EVEN FURTHER.
ALMOST ALL MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER TROF IS FORECAST TO ZIP OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS ANOTHER NW FLOW SYSTEM AND WILL ZIP OVER THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS WELL STILL IT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE DIVIDED ON THE SYSTEM
WITH MANY KEEPING IT TOO FAR INSIDE TO BRING MUCH RAIN BUT OTHERS
WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY DO BRING RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT JUST
LOOKS LIKE A COOL, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW ENSEMBLES DO SHOW RAIN
ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS A PRETTY LOW CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING EACH DAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL OR
EVEN PRODUCE SOME 70 DEGREES READINGS.
AVIATION
15/1131Z.
AT 0847Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND NO INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS. 1 TO 3
HOUR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIODS OF
BKN020-025 CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT
CHC OF A 8KT EAST WIND COMPONENT 10Z-16Z. A STRONG STORM MONDAY
WILL BRING STRONG EAST WINDS, RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIODS OF
BKN020-025 CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME.
MARINE
15/1233 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL,
MODERATE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL AS THE SEAS. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A
60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO 8 HOUR BREAK IN WIDESPREAD
GALES TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXTRA
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE MAY INCLUDE STORM FORCE WINDS,
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND
WATERSPOUTS.
A LARGE MIXED MEDIUM PERIOD WEST SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FEET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD FURTHER TO 10 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST IN THE OUTER AND NORTHERN WATERS.
BEACHES
14/1146 PM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO START ON MONDAY, WITH
SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST FACING
BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE
DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOWS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT ALONG WITH
WIND- DRIVEN FACTORS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR
ZONES 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-366>375-383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO NOON PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9
AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 377-380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...MUNROE/CC/BLACK
BEACHES...RM/BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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