127
FXUS66 KLOX 160249
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
649 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/109 PM.
IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF
LOS ANGELES. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
BURN-SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS, FLASH FLOODING WITH ROCK AND MUD SLIDES,
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND HIGH SURF WITH COASTAL
FLOODING. COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RAIN WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
15/649 PM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF LOW-MID CLOUDS
OVER SLO/SB/VTA COUNTIES AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER LA
COUNTY. THE RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SLO/SB
COUNTIES WITH MORE ORGANIZATION WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE STORM HAS DEEPENED 2MB (1003MB - 1001MB) FROM 1PM TO
4PM - WHICH IS ALMOST 1MB/HR INDICATING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT AS
THE STORMS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SB/SLO
COUNTIES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD EASTWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PEAK ACTIVITY ACROSS SLO/SB COUNTIES WILL OCCUR AROUND RUSH HOUR
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AND MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS VTA/LA COUNTIES. THE SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS SUCH AS HEAVY
RAINFALL, ENHANCED DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF SPIN
UP TORNADOES AND/OR WATER SPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SB COUNTY, ALL OF VTA, AND ALL OF LA COUNTY EXCLUDING THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THIS MEANS: FLOODING CAUSED
BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ROCK AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON BURN SCARS. THERE
IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE OF DAMAGING DEBRIS FLOWS.
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5-0.75 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL RATES
1+" AND MUCH OF WHICH COULD FALL IN A 15-30 MINUTE SPAN AS THE
SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED TO
BE 1-2.5" FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND 2.5-5" FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY EVENING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, SOME OF GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE LIKE
A SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS PERIOD AS INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN PRESENT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS &
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY FALL
DURING THIS PERIOD TO 3,000-4500FT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR, HWY
33, AND POSSIBLY OTHER LOW PASSES.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
***LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY***
***ANYONE NEAR VULNERABLE AREAS ARE URGED TO START TAKING
PRECAUTIONS NOW***
***SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING SMALL TORNADOS, 60 MPH WINDS, AND
ONE INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES POSSIBLE***
***3 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET***
***SNOW OVER THE GRAPEVINE ON INTERSTATE 5 EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY***
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ADJACENT TO CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH ACTUALLY HAS TWO DISTINCT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY BUT THOSE WILL COMBINE INTO ONE
POWERFUL STORM LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO TAPPED INTO A HEALTHY
SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO IT HAS THE RELATIVELY
RARE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND
A STRONG VORT LOBE COMING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO SANTA BARBARA
TODAY WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. BUT THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, STARTING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA THEN
MOVING THROUGH VENTURA AND LA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR, HIGHEST SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE TRANSVERSE RANGE AND
THE 50-60KT SOUTH WINDS WITH THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE A STRONG
BET AS WELL AND CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
WATERSPOUTS AND SMALL TORNADOES. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS WELL AND WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS COVER MOST OF
THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5000
FEET SO NO SNOW IMPACTS TO THE MAIN MOUNTAIN ROADS INCLUDING I5
INITIALLY. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
RAIN AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-2.5" COAST/VALLEYS AND
2-5" IN THE MOUNTAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE
ISOLATED 6" AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL FAVORED SOUTH FACING AREAS LIKE
MATILIJA IN THE VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE.
WITH THIS FIRST FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RAIN RATES WILL TAPERING OFF QUICKLY, BUT OFF AND ON
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DURING THAT PERIOD RAIN AMOUNTS IN MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH, AND MOST OF THAT WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT AND MUCH COLDER IMPULSE WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT ONE IS STILL OUTSIDE
MOST OF OUR HI RES MODELS BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE MUCH COLDER
WITH LOWER PW'S AND LESS OROGRAPHIC FORCING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY IN MOST AREAS. THERE IS STILL A RISK
OF HEAVY SHOWERS DUE TO CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND SOME UPSLOPE
FORCING, ESPECIALLY IN SLO AND SB COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
AMOUNTS IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND 1-2"
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWERING TO AROUND 3000
FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWERING SHOW LEVELS WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING INTERSTATE 5 OVER
THE GRAPEVINE WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH 3-6" OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
15/212 PM.
ANOTHER TROF IS FORECAST TO ZIP OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS ANOTHER NW FLOW SYSTEM AND WILL ZIP OVER THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS WELL STILL IT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE DIVIDED ON THE SYSTEM
WITH MANY KEEPING IT TOO FAR INSIDE TO BRING MUCH RAIN BUT OTHERS
WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY DO BRING RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT JUST
LOOKS LIKE A COOL, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW ENSEMBLES DO SHOW RAIN
ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS A PRETTY LOW CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING EACH DAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL OR
EVEN PRODUCE SOME 70 DEGREES READINGS.
AVIATION
15/2359Z.
AT 2323Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS. 1 TO 3
HOUR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, AND
OVC008-OVC015 OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVY RAIN
(STARTING AFTER AROUND 10Z MON FOR NORTHERN SITES AND AFTER 15Z
FOR SOUTHERN SITES). A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, RAIN, AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIODS OF
BKN020-025 CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME, AND OVC008-OVC015 OR
LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 16Z. WINDS SHIFTS TIMING
MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
EAST WINDS, RAIN AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIODS OF
BKN020-025 CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME, AND OVC008-OVC015 OR
LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
15/1002 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL,
MODERATE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL AS THE SEAS. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A
60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO 8 HOUR BREAK IN WIDESPREAD
GALES TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXTRA
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE MAY INCLUDE STORM FORCE WINDS,
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND
WATERSPOUTS.
A LARGE MIXED MEDIUM PERIOD WEST SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FEET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD FURTHER TO 12 TO 16 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST IN THE OUTER AND NORTHERN WATERS.
BEACHES
15/242 PM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO START ON MONDAY, WITH
SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST FACING
BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE
DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOWS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT ALONG WITH
WIND- DRIVEN FACTORS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR
ZONES 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST MONDAY
FOR ZONES 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-366>375-383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO NOON PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9
AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 377-380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...BLACK/MW
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...MUNROE/CC/RS
BEACHES...RM/CILIBERTI/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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