915
FXUS66 KLOX 161114
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
314 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/1057 PM.
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BURN-
SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS, FLASH FLOODING WITH ROCK AND MUD SLIDES,
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND HIGH SURF WITH COASTAL
FLOODING. COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RAIN WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
16/311 AM.
***LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY***
***ANYONE NEAR VULNERABLE AREAS ARE URGED TO START TAKING
PRECAUTIONS NOW***
***SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING SMALL TORNADOS, 60 MPH WINDS, AND
ONE INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES POSSIBLE***
***3 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET***
***SNOW OVER THE GRAPEVINE ON INTERSTATE 5 EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY***
ITS GO TIME FOR TODAY'S POTENT STORM.
A 540 DAM UPPER LOW IS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD AND IS CURRENTLY 440
MILES TO THE WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
IS TILTING THE SW FLOW OVER SRN CA MORE TO THE SOUTH AND IS
INTENSIFYING A FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST AROUND 800 AM, THE CITY OF
SBA AROUND 10 AM AND THE VTA COAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD
ENTER LA COUNTY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF LA COUNTY
TO THE EAST AROUND 4PM.
THE FRONT WILL BE FUELED BY POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY (40 KT
AT 850MB AND 80KT AT 500 MB). THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE (ISOLATED HEAVY) RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A 20 TO 30 MINUTE PEAK IN INTENSITY WITH THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PRESENT ITSELF AS A SQUALL LINE. PLENTY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND KEEP THE RAINFALL GOING
ALTHOUGH TO NOWHERE NEAR THE DEGREE OF THE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
THE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONSIST OF STRONG ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WITH WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
60 TO 70 MPH IN THE MTNS. RAINFALL RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE .33 TO .50 IN/HR ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS. DUE TO THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE RATES
NEAR .75 IN/HR WITH SOME SHORT LIVED RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR.
THE WEATHER WITHIN THE FRONT WILL BE THE MOST DANGEROUS. THE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTION BOTH WITH LIGHTNING
AND WITHOUT. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER (60+ MPH
DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR WEAK TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS). THE POWERFUL
CONVECTIVE LIFT ALONG WITH THE 1" PWATS COULD EASILY BRING 1+
IN/HR RAINFALL RATES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM ACROSS MUCH OF SB
COUNTY, ALL OF VTA, AND ALL OF LA COUNTY EXCLUDING THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THIS MEANS: FLOODING CAUSED BY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ROCK AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON BURN SCARS. THERE
IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE OF DAMAGING DEBRIS FLOWS.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
1-2.5" ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS AND 2.5-5" ISOLATED 6" OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL START OUT AT 65 FT AND WILL FALL TO 5500 FT
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS THIS HIGH MEAN THAT ALL THE MAJOR
MTN PASSES (INCLUDING I-5 AND HWY 14) WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY
SNOW. MOTORISTS, HOWEVER, WILL STILL FACE VERY STRONG WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SIGNIFICANT (1 TO 2 FT) SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER, ARE LIKELY AT THE RESORT LEVELS. A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND THE NORTHERN VTA COUNTY MTNS.
THERE WILL BE A MARKED LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STILL THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE UNSTABLE AND THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A AN ISOLATED TSTM ROAMING ABOUT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FT AND A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY A VERY COLD UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE MORNING AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY IN
THE MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHC OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ENDING UP MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE THE OR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A TROF
AND FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HGTS WILL FALL TO 549 DAM. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS NOT AS
MUCH MOISTURE (PWATS ~.60") WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TODAY'S AS THERE
IS NO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A 122KT
(140MPH) 500MB JET DIRECTLY ALIGNED OVER SBA/VTA/LA COUNTIES. THIS
MUCH ENERGY COULD REALLY ENERGIZE THE SHOWERS AND PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TSTMS. THE JUST WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM
AS THE HI- REZ MDLS GET THEIR TEETH INTO IT. THE ONE MAJOR TALKING
POINT FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY
SINK TO 4000 FT (AND LOWER UNDER CONVECTIVE BURSTS) AND MAY BRING
ACCUMULATED SNOW TO THE MAJOR MTN PASSES. AT THIS TIME OVER THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN TO FALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS AND CSTL
SLOPES. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW COULD FALL ABOVE 6000 FT WITH HALF A
FOOT POSSIBLE FORM 4000 TO 6000 FT.
THAT SUPER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL REALLY PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AND BY DAWN MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE
OVER. A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TOTALS ARE UNLIKELY. ALL OF THE
COLD AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
16/1216 AM.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THE ENTIRE STATE WILL BE UNDER FAST MOVING
MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
BRING CHC (30-40 PERCENT) OF RAIN TO SLO AND NORTH AND WEST SBA
COUNTIES. SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION THERE WILL ONLY BE A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 3000 FT AND THE TEJON
(I-5) PASS WILL SEE SNOW FLURRIES.
ON THURSDAY A FAST MOVING TROF WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE NW AND WILL
LIKELY (70 PERCENT CHC) BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS A
DRIER SYSTEM (PWATS ~ .60") AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO IT WILL BE A
SHOWERY SYSTEM. EARLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES CALL FOR A THIRD TO A
HALF INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS. THE SHOWERY
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM MAY MAKE THE RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS
HOMOGENEOUS THAN TYPICAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FT BUT
COULD BE LOWER UNDER CONVECTIVE BURSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOLIDLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY COOL AND DRY.
NOT THE BEST MDL AGREEMENT ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES
SPLITTING BETWEEN WEAK TROFFING AND WEAK RIDGING. ENOUGH ENSEMBLES
ARE WET TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, BUT
REALLY THINK THE DAY WILL BE DRY. SKIES SHOULD BE, AT WORST,
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL WILL
COME IN ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE PARADE OF STORMS AS
A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD POP UP AND MAKE FOR A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL RESPOND IN KIND, RISING 3 TO 6 DEGREES
AND ENDING UP IN THE 60S (STILL 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER NORMAL)
A COLD 522 DAM MOVE TOWARDS THE PACNW ON SUNDAY AND WILL SET UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAST MOVING SW FLOW OVER THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL END
UP MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO ADD
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING, BUT IF THE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLIER OR ARE
THICKER THIS WARMING MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
LOOKING AT BOTH LONG RANGE AI MDLS THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN EACH DAY MON TUE AND WED (THE 23RD, 24TH AND 25TH)
AVIATION
16/1113Z.
AT 0823Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH 15Z THEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL
TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH CIGS AND
VIS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY. MVFR FLIGHT CONDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE
TIME, BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CONDS AND A CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDS DURING HEAVIER RAINS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING
CONDITION AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM (13Z-19Z
KPRB, KSBP AND KSMX AND 16Z-22Z FOR THE REST OF THE SITES)
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF BKN025 CONDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF 15Z-00Z AS CIG AND VIS
WILL VARY FREQUENTLY. DURING THIS TIME CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN
010 AND 020, BUT BKN008 CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIOD OF
BKN004 1SM +RA BR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST WINDS
THROUGH 20Z (STRONGEST 15Z-19Z) WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF THEM
LASTING THROUGH 22Z.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF BKN025 CONDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF 15Z-00Z AS CIG AND VIS
WILL VARY FREQUENTLY. DURING THIS TIME CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN
010 AND 020, BUT BKN008 CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIOD OF
BKN004 1SM +RA BR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
MARINE
16/156 AM.
A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXTRA HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE MAY INCLUDE STORM FORCE WINDS (ABOVE 48
KTS), DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY,
SMALL HAIL, AND WATERSPOUTS.
A LARGE MIXED MEDIUM PERIOD WEST SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FEET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD FURTHER TO 12 TO 16 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST IN THE OUTER AND NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS
AROUND 10 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL,
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 4 TO
8 HOUR BREAK IN WIDESPREAD GALES TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A
50-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AFTER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SCA WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
16/156 AM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
ON MONDAY, WITH SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WEST FACING BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX
PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING OR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL
GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT, ALONG WITH WIND- DRIVEN FACTORS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-366>375-383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 377-380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE/LUND
MARINE...LUND
BEACHES...RM/CILIBERTI/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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