295
FXUS66 KLOX 170641
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
16/852 PM.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME BREAKS IN
THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AT TIMES DURING WHICH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
WILL FALL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
16/848 PM.
WEATHER ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE QUIETER CURRENTLY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY
AS EARLIER TODAY. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATES A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.33 INCH PER HOUR RATES, MUCH
LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WHILE THE THREAT IS LESS, A COLD AIR MASS
ALOFT IS IN PLACE AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
PLACE. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS STILL AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT, SMALL
HAIL WILL START TO ENTER THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
TRAVEL IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS THE TEJON PASS.
THE NEXT PIECE OF THE SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE COVERED IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT, BUT WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR OTHER AREAS AND ADDRESSED ON THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORMS HAS MOSTLY PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
AREAS, INCLUDING THE WESTSIDE OF LA WHERE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
FELL IN ONE HOUR THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM HAS
PASSED BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING THIS WAY.
EXPECTING THOSE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT NIGHT. MOST, IF NOT ALL,
AREAS WILL GET SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN, AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS AT LEAST 90%
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THAT A STORM WILL
DROP A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR LOCALLY MORE AND THIS COULD HAPPEN
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO ALLOW TIME TO
SEE HOW THE EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY,
HOWEVER THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL INITIATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL MOSTLY END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED ON
AVERAGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5" IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS A MUCH COLDER SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
MUCH OF THE STORM WILL BE DONE BY THAT TIME, PREVAILING NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE GRAPEVINE ON
INTERSTATE 5. DURING THIS PERIOD 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ON THE HIGHWAY AND SEVERAL MORE INCHES OVER THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL OVER INTERSTATE 5 (OR ANY
MOUNTAIN ROADS) TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DELAYS AND OR CLOSURES. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SLO AND NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS STORM CYCLE WILL ROLL THROUGH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A
HALF INCH OF RAIN OR LESS FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE ARE AROUND 20% OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING
AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THIS
ONE AND IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SNOW ON THE THE GRAPEVINE.
WILL RE- EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
16/219 PM.
FOR THE TIME BEING MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING DRY
WEATHER ON FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE DROPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THERE
ARE QUITE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY OR
BOTH. ANY RAIN ON SATURDAY WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT BUT THERE ARE
INCREASING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING HIGHER RAIN RATES ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AT LEAST INTO LATER THIS WEEK
BEFORE THE MODELS GET A HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF EACH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES COMING THROUGH.
AVIATION
17/0617Z.
AT 0522Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BRING
FREQUENT CIG CHANGES BETWEEN LOW VFR AND MVFR ALONG WITH
INTERMITTENT RAIN.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
BE VFR BUT THERE WILL BE OCNL 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIODS OF BKN CLDS
BETWEEN 015 AND 025 USUALLY WITH SHOWERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE NO EAST WIND COMPONENT.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
BE VFR BUT THERE WILL BE OCNL 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIODS OF BKN CLDS
BETWEEN 015 AND 025 USUALLY WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
16/827 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE
WESTERLY WINDS (ASIDE FROM A LULL IN WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING). FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE
IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY (PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY). FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS (EXCEPT FOR A LULL IN
WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING). FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY). FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA
LEVEL WINDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
16/825 PM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST FACING BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, SEE THE
CFWLOX AND SRFLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING OR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL
GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 377-380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...HALL/MW/COHEN
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/CMC
BEACHES...RM/CC/RS/RAT
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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