924
FXUS66 KLOX 171721
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
921 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/844 AM.
A STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE LULLS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT ANOTHER
STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
17/917 AM.
***UPDATE***
FOR MOST OF TODAY JUST SOME SCATTERED AND QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS
DROPPING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING DOWN THE COAST FROM
MONTEREY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS LIKELY WON'T BE AS HIGH AS SOME RECENT STORMS,
MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND 1-2" IN THE MOUNTAINS,
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED
BY VERY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60 MPH AT TIMES THAT COULD
EASILY BLOW DOWN TREES AND CAUSE DAMAGE. THE LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
70MPH IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TONIGHT AND
OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS, SO THE CHANCES FOR WIND
DAMAGE TONIGHT IS QUITE HIGH.
***RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE DOWN ANY AWNINGS OR UMBRELLAS AND
AVOID PARKING CARS NEAR TREES.***
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS WELL AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 FEET OR LOCALLY LOWER LEADING TO A
HIGH CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE GRAPEVINE ON INTERSTATE
5 AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, INCLUDING INTERSTATE 5, SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS OR
CLOSURES DUE TO SNOW.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM DRIVEN
BY A STRONG 12+ MB LAX-SFO GRADIENT. ADVISORY LEVEL 35 TO 45 MPH
GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL XTND INTO VTA AND LA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. WARNING
LEVEL GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE MTNS BUT THAT
HAZARD IS ENCOMPASSED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
THE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH STEADY LGT-MDT RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND A 15 TO 30 MINUTE BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
RIGHT ALONG WITH THE FRONT. RAINFALL RATES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
.33-.50 IN/HR RANGE BUT CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCED AREAS COULD SEE RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR. THESE RATES
AND THE ANTECEDENT RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS COULD
PRODUCE FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL AREAS INCLUDING THE BURN SCAR LOCATIONS FROM 3PM TO 3AM FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND 6PM TO 6AM FOR VTA/LA COUNTIES. RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DAWN WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
FROM .75-1.00 INCHES CSTS/VLYS AND 1 TO 2 LOCALLY 2.5 INCHES IN
THE MTNS.
THIS IS A MUCH COLDER SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE STORM
WILL BE DONE BY THAT TIME, PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE GRAPEVINE ON INTERSTATE 5.
DURING THIS PERIOD 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON I-5 AND
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OVER THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. ANYONE
PLANNING TRAVEL OVER I-5 (OR ANY MOUNTAIN ROADS) TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS AND OR CLOSURES. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MTNS DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE STORM WILL LIKELY BLOW THROUGH TO THE EAST BY 600 AM ON
WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES
WITH A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE BUT WILL
BE MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS SLO COUNTY AND THE NRN MTN SLOPES
(MEANING THAT SNOW COULD CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE I-5
GRAPEVINE). MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES BLO NORMALS AND
WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS.
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER SRN CA AND ANOTHER IMPULSE RACING
DOWN THE CA/NV STATE LINE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SLO COUNTY LATE IN THE
EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS
VTA COUNTY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FT. THIS STORM
IS DRIER AND LESS DYNAMIC THAT THE ONES EARLIER THIS WEEK AND ONLY
A THIRD TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MIRED IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
17/243 AM.
FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF PREDAWN SHOWERS AND A SMALL
BUT NON ZERO CHC OF A SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING, THE DAYS SHOULD BE
DRY WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. 3 TO 6 DEGREES
OF WARMING WILL BRING MOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS
STILL 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 AS A WEAK RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER LARGE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM MOVES DOWN AND INTO THE PACNW
SUNDAY AND BRING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW TO SRN CA ONCE AGAIN. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THE FORECAST BROAD BRUSHES
30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS REFLECTS MDL CONFUSION AND NOT A THREE DAY
RAIN EVENT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT HAS THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION
17/1237Z.
AT 0925Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BRING
FREQUENT CIG CHANGES BETWEEN LOW VFR AND MVFR ALONG WITH
INTERMITTENT RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS BETWEEN 23Z
TUE AND 14Z WED. WINDS WILL ALSO VARY GREATLY AND MAY BE UP TO 10
KT WEAKER THAN FORECAST AT ANY TIME.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
BE VFR BUT THERE WILL BE OCNL 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIODS OF BKN CLDS
BETWEEN 015 AND 025 USUALLY WITH SHOWERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
BE VFR BUT THERE WILL BE OCNL 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIODS OF BKN CLDS
BETWEEN 015 AND 025 USUALLY WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
17/704 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WESTERLY
WINDS (ASIDE FROM A LULL IN WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING). FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. SCA LEVEL SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY (PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY). FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS (EXCEPT FOR A LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS THIS MORNING). FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SCA LEVEL SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS. TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
17/121 AM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST FACING BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE
THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING OR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS DURING
THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE
REMAIN CONSISTENT, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 38-340>349. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 38-340>353. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 88-350-352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 88-354>358-362-366>383-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 353-376-378-379-381-382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 377-380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LUND/RORKE
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RM/CC/RS/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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