000
FXUS66 KLOX 180621
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1021 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/456 PM.
A STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE LULLS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL RAIN THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE
FOR SUNDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
17/822 PM.
***UPDATE***
***RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE DOWN ANY AWNINGS OR UMBRELLAS AND
AVOID PARKING CARS NEAR TREES.***
RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OVER THE
AREA. CURRENTLY THE LINE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING
WITH RAIN UP TO 0.5 INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS IN
THIS BAND. THE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
BLOWING DOWN TREES, TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTION OF OTHER OBJECTS.
WHILE THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WON'T BE AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS
STORM, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN ALONG
WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE OF GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS, EXCEPT FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
FINALLY, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT. RECENT REPORTS INDICATE SNOWFALL AT
AROUND 5100 FEET, BUT THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FURTHER TO NEAR
3000 FEET OR LOWER OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE AREA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE GRAPEVINE. LOCAL SNOWFALL UP
TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE, POTENTIALLY CAUSING DELAYS OR
CLOSURES.
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST NUMEROUS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL A COOL DAY AND EVENING
WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AND EXITING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AGAIN SOME COOL AND BREEZY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 4000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER
INTERSTATE 5. RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND MAINTAINING SHOWERS THERE LONGER.
LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ARE POSSIBLE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE ROAD THERE.
DRY BUT VERY COOL FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SOME MORNING FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM
CLEARS OUT AND HOW MUCH WIND LINGERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
17/108 PM.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 AS A WEAK RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER LARGE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM MOVES DOWN AND INTO THE PACNW
SUNDAY AND BRING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW TO SRN CA ONCE AGAIN. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THE FORECAST BROAD BRUSHES
30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS REFLECTS MDL CONFUSION AND NOT A THREE DAY
RAIN EVENT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT HAS THAT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPACTFUL.
THERE IS ANOTHER STORM THAT MODELS ARE TARGETING FOR LATER NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM
WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
AVIATION
18/0619Z.
AT 06Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CIGS WITH IFR VSBY AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AT 06Z IS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA
AREA. TIMING OF THIS LINE MOVING OVER THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES
TO THE SOUTH COULD BE OFF BY +/-1 HOUR, BRINGING A 15-30% CHANCE
OF TSTMS. TSTM CHANCES OF 15% MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WED WITH
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT LINGER BEHIND THE LINE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS IS LOW AS VALUES COULD BE UP TO 10 KNOTS
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ALL
PARAMETERS. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF TSTMS SPECIFICALLY
THROUGH 12Z, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED OF GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH A SHIFT TO W WINDS EXPECTED BY AROUND
11Z. EAST WINDS OF 8+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR
HEAVY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, AFTER THE RAIN ENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ALL
PARAMETERS. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF TSTMS SPECIFICALLY
THROUGH 12Z, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED OF GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH A SHIFT TO W WINDS EXPECTED BY AROUND
11Z. GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT COULD BE UP TO 10 KNOTS WEAKER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MARINE
17/823 PM.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OVER THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AT
STRONG GALE FORCE (40 TO 45 KNOTS). THE LINE IS SOUTH OF PZZ670
AND PZZ645 AND APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION AS OF 0800 PM PST.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS. IN ADDITION, SEAS ARE BUILDING RAPIDLY AS A LARGE WESTERLY
SWELL COMBINES WITH LARGE SOUTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FORCE WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SEAS. FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
SUNDAY, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
GALE FORCE WINDS AND SCA LEVEL SEAS. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF
A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
17/803 PM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WEST FACING BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX
AND SRFLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING OR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS DURING
THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
38-340>353. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
38-340>349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 88-350-352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
88-354>358-362-366>383-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 353-376>382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONE 383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...RAT/CC
BEACHES...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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