033
FXUS66 KLOX 181037
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
237 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/1207 AM.
A STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH LULLS
IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL RAIN THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
18/203 AM.
THE BULK OF THE STORM FROM OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION BY SUNRISE, HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING, MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE,
A COOL DAY AND EVENING IS ON TRACK WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, EXITING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AGAIN
SOME COOL AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 4000
FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER INTERSTATE 5. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND
UP TO AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND
MAINTAINING SHOWERS THERE LONGER. LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE ROAD THERE.
DRY BUT VERY COOL FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SOME MORNING FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM
CLEARS OUT AND HOW MUCH WIND LINGERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/203 AM.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION AS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 AS A WEAK RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER LARGE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM MOVES DOWN AND INTO THE PACNW
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW TO SRN CA ONCE AGAIN.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THE FORECAST BROAD
BRUSHES 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS REFLECTS MDL CONFUSION AND NOT A
MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT HAS THAT
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK THAT IMPACTFUL.
THERE IS ANOTHER STORM THAT MODELS ARE TARGETING FOR LATER NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM
WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
AVIATION
18/0621Z.
AT 06Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CIGS WITH IFR
VSBY AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.
A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AT 06Z IS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA
AREA. TIMING OF THIS LINE MOVING OVER THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES
TO THE SOUTH COULD BE OFF BY +/-1 HOUR, BRINGING A 15-30% CHANCE
OF TSTMS. TSTM CHANCES OF 15% MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WED WITH
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT LINGER BEHIND THE LINE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS IS LOW AS VALUES COULD BE UP TO 10 KNOTS
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ALL
PARAMETERS. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF TSTMS SPECIFICALLY
THROUGH 12Z, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED OF GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH A SHIFT TO W WINDS EXPECTED BY AROUND
11Z. EAST WINDS OF 8+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR
HEAVY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, AFTER THE RAIN ENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ALL
PARAMETERS. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF TSTMS SPECIFICALLY
THROUGH 12Z, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED OF GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH A SHIFT TO W WINDS EXPECTED BY AROUND
11Z. GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT COULD BE UP TO 10 KNOTS WEAKER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MARINE
18/234 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY EARLY MORNING THROUGH NIGHT.
STEEP SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN CONDS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF A COMBINATION OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING,
DROPPING TO SCA LEVELS WITH A BRIEF BREAK LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EVENING. STEEP, CHOPPY, SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE AND
MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE INCREASING BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
18/236 AM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TODAY ACROSS WEST
FACING BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX
PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING OR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS DURING
THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING AND A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTS. PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 38-340>353. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 38-340>349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 88-350-352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 88-354>358-362-366>383-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 353-376>382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LUND
BEACHES...RAT/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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