220
FXUS66 KLOX 181713
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/849 AM.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE GRAPEVINE, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE SUNNY AND
DRY BUT COOL AND BREEZY. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THEN DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
18/912 AM.
***UPDATE***
THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE GRAPEVINE WEST. OTHERWISE, JUST A COOL AND BREEZY DAY
TODAY WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ON IT'S WAY,
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK HITTER, MAINLY AROUND 6 HOURS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN, MOST OF WHICH SHOULD END BEFORE DINNER. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 70 MPH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. NOT AS WINDY
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WITH THE STORM LAST NIGHT BUT AS THE STORM
PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, EXITING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AGAIN
SOME COOL AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 4000
FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER INTERSTATE 5. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR COAST/VALLEYS AND
UP TO AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND
MAINTAINING SHOWERS THERE LONGER. LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE ROAD THERE.
DRY BUT VERY COOL FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SOME MORNING FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM
CLEARS OUT AND HOW MUCH WIND LINGERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/203 AM.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION AS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 AS A WEAK RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF WARMING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER LARGE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM MOVES DOWN AND INTO THE PACNW
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW TO SRN CA ONCE AGAIN.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THE FORECAST BROAD
BRUSHES 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS REFLECTS MDL CONFUSION AND NOT A
MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT HAS THAT
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK THAT IMPACTFUL.
THERE IS ANOTHER STORM THAT MODELS ARE TARGETING FOR LATER NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM
WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
AVIATION
18/1709Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A 20% CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH A BETTER CHANCES OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS 20Z-02Z. FOR TONIGHT, TIMING OF
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE LIKELY
AFTER 14Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS 20Z-02Z. FOR TONIGHT, TIMING OF
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
18/909 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS
A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS A 50-70% OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS A
50-70% OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
18/236 AM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF GENERALLY PEAKING TODAY ACROSS WEST
FACING BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX
PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL. THIS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING OR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS DURING
THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING AND A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTS. PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 350-352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 353-376>382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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