671
FXUS66 KLOX 190523
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/900 PM.
ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING MORE RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. THEN DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
18/901 PM.
***UPDATE***
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORMS, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS JUST
NORTH OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES, STRONG
WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT
PRODUCTS FOR WINDS AND WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK,
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FOLLOWING UP OUR HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH A WIND ADVISORY, AS NORTHWESTERLY
GUSTS ACCELERATE OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THESE WINDS WILL BE AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME VARIABILITY IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. COLD AIR SETS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND 30S OVER MANY VALLEYS AND COASTAL PLAINS. SPOTS
WHERE WINDS DIE OFF COULD NEED FROST ADVISORIES.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE NEXT STORM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN
INTO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH AROUND 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOST OF WHICH WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING AROUND A 30-50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN RATES REACHING A HALF INCH PER HOUR SO SOME POCKETS
OF AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE PRETTY LIKELY AT TIMES. THESE MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH COULD ALSO GENERATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. OVERALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS, BUT AREAS THAT GET
THOSE SMALL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET
CLOSER TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET,
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET AS THE STORM ARRIVES. 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
6000 FEET AND AN INCH OR SO DOWN TO GRAPEVINE LEVEL AT 4000 FEET
SO ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL OVER INTERSTATE 5 OR ANY OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS OR TEMPORARY
CLOSURES. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
THE STORM HAS PASSED, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH FACING SLOPES BORDERING
KERN COUNTY, WHICH INCLUDES THE GRAPEVINE. FOR THIS REASON THE
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE STORM PASSES
AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST, PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE INTERIOR,
INCLUDING INTERIOR SLO AND SB COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE. WOULD STILL RECOMMEND PARKING CARS
AWAY FROM TREES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL POSSIBLY BE ONE THE COLDEST MORNINGS IN
SEVERAL WEEKS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DROP OFF. EXPECT TO SEE
LOTS OF 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL COAST AND UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
THE REST OF FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COOL WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
18/144 PM.
12Z MODELS NOW ARE TRENDING LATER AND LIGHTER WITH THE NEXT STORM,
NOT ARRIVING HERE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME,
THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WARMING A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, BUT STILL WITH SOME CHILLY MORNINGS, POSSIBLY
WITH AREAS OF FROST.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM, MODELS ARE TRENDING LIGHTER, AND DELAYING THE ARRIVAL TO
LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A HANDFUL SHOWING
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE UNDER A HALF INCH. THEN
LIKELY DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
19/0105Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT ONSET OF RAIN WILL BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING LA
COUNTY BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. GUSTY WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE +/- 2 HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE LIKELY AROUND 14Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
THERE IS A 15% CHANCE THAT SE WINDS REACH 20 KT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE +/- 2 HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECAST. GUSTY SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLIES AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SIMILAR
ACCURACY IN REGARDS TO WIND SHIFT TIMING.
MARINE
18/824 PM.
***UPDATE***
ONE IMPORTANT ITEM TO NOTE: HAVE MOVED THE START TIMES FOR THE
GALE WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS & NEARSHORE
WATERS ADJACENT TO CENTRAL COAST TO 3 AM AND FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST
ZONE (PZZ676) TO 6 AM. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST,
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ALONG
WITH HIGH SEAS, THESE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND/OR SEAS IS EXPECTED.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS. HIGHEST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR MONDAY,
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS. FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
18/741 PM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF LIKELY HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE
DETAILS. ADDITIONALLY, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 38-344-345-353-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-362-366>376-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 353-376>382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/PHILLIPS
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/PHILLIPS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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