163
FXUS66 KLOX 191138
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
338 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/334 AM.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD AND BRISK DAY TODAY. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION. STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
TONIGHT. A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER STORM COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
19/332 AM.
SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. STEADY RAIN
OVER MONTEREY COUNTY AND OUT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH STEADY RAIN
MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 0.33 INCH PER HOUR
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOME MOUNTAINS AREAS, BUT THE THREAT OF RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH PER HOUR IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
STORMS EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH PER HOUR. POPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED
HIGHER THAN NBM VALUES FOR MOST AREAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE INLINE WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLES.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM. SOME INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
DIFLUENCE ALOFT FOR TIME PERIODS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WEAK
CAPE VALUES, AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -25 DEGREES
CELSIUS OVER NORTHERN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, BUT THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE TROUGH DEVIATE FROM NBM THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. OFFICIALLY, THE FORECAST ADVERTISES A
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID,
THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE A NON-ZERO CHANCE. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING
AND SOLAR INSOLATION, LAPSE RATES COULD STEEPEN ENOUGH TO GIVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SNOW WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ABOVE 4000 FEET,
BUT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, THE SNOW LEVEL COULD LOCALLY FALL
TO AROUND 3000 FEET. ON TOP OF WHAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND, THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF 5-10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 6000
FEET. THE GRAPEVINE PORTION OF INTERSTATE 5 COULD SEE UP TO AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE TEJON PASS LATER THIS MORNING.
TRAVEL ON MOUNTAIN ROADS MAY BE AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING AND
BLOWING SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ANYONE TRAVELING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TREACHEROUS WINTRY DRIVING
CONDITIONS, DELAYS, OR ROAD CLOSURES. YOUR VEHICLE SHOULD ALWAYS
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT STOCKED WITH EXTRA BLANKETS, CLOTHING,
FOOD, AND WATER WHEN DRIVING IN WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. SNOW
WILL TURN TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT MODERATE
SHOWER ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE STORM
HAS PASSED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
THUS, A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
FRIDAY.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS MORNING
AS THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE STATE. WIND SUPPORT ALOFT WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING AT
LEAST WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MOST COASTAL, VALLEY,
AND FOOTHILL AREAS, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS COULD REACH OR EXCEED DAMAGING LEVELS.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A HIGH TO
LIKELY CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION
OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AND ALONG THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY BUT STILL ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE THE COLDEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. A COLD AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
19/303 AM.
THE LATEST FORECAST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN THE
LATEST SOLUTIONS, NOT ONLY DELAYING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BUT
DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PREVIOUS ENSEMBLES. AS THE
STORM STALLS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, RIDGING ALOFT WILL
VERY LIKELY DEVELOP AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY
ESTABLISH. CHILLY MORNINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE IN AS SOON AS MONDAY, BUT WPC CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY IF IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. EPS AND GEFS
MEMBERS BACK OFF QPF AMOUNTS FOR NEXT WEEK, WHILE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
WOULD INDICATE A 35-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK AT ALL WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE REMAINING CLUSTERS SUGGEST A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
19/0702Z.
AT 06Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ONSET OF RAIN
WILL BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
GENERALLY EXPECTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING LA
COUNTY BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. GUSTY WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
12Z-00Z THURSDAY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE LIKELY AROUND 14Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
THERE IS A 15% CHANCE THAT SE WINDS REACH 20 KT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECAST. GUSTY SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLIES AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
19/215 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING, THEN WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING. AS FOR
SEAS, THE SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THEN, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY, SAVE FOR THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, WHERE
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SCA
LEVELS TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN DROP TO SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING.
BEACHES
19/104 AM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. ADDITIONALLY,
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
HIGH TIDES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX
PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 38-344-345-353-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-362-366>376-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 353-376>382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...BLACK/KL
MARINE...LUND/BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...BLACK/KL
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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